Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Week 13 Fantasy Picks: Playoffs or Bust

Thanksgiving was good to me. DeAngelo, CJ and my other little underachievers stepped up. And stepped up big. Thanks to them, I’ve secured playoff spots in both leagues. So now, it’s playoff prep time. If you’re a playoff lock, start thinking ahead – look to favorable matchups down the road, scout the waiver wire and make sure your lineup is ready. If you’re sweating out week 13, hoping for a sixth place finish, do whatever it takes to get that golden ticket.

Here are a few pickups to help you in the playoff drive. Good luck to all!

Donald Brown – Even as one of my waiver recommendations last week, my expectations weren’t very high. Now I think Brown’s a “must-grab” in all formats, following his performance on Sunday with 80 yards and a touchdown. Joseph Addai only mustered 23 yards on seven carries. Hard to tell if Addai’s hamstring was the cause of his limited play or if his poor production benched him. Either way, Brown stands to gain more carries week 13. Available in 87 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Mo Morris – Poor Kevin Smith left the Thanksgiving table early. Morris stepped in with 120 YFS. With Jahvid Best out of the picture, and Smith looking iffy, look to Morris to get a considerable share of the carries. New Orleans is weak against the rush, surrendering the tenth most points to opposing running backs. Available in 62 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Kendall Hunter – Hunter is a repeat recommendation as my Frank Gore concerns continue. With just 39 yards on 14 carries, Gore isn’t himself. The extra rest after playing Thursday should benefit the star receiver, but think of Hunter as a grab-and-stash guy. You may not need him this Sunday, but think long term. Available in 66 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Roy Helu – Maybe, just maybe we have a Redskins running back we can trust. With 108 yards on the ground, and 54 in the air, Helu has secured the starting slot. Maybe. Hopefully. Not confident in wishing? Rest assured, Mike Shanahan has spoken, and Helu is the week 13 starter. I actually believe him this time. As always, I am compelled to remind you, there is risk in starting any Shanahan RB. Available in 51 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Denver defense – Let’s give the defense some credit for the Broncos hot streak, yielding only 36 real points to opposing teams over three weeks. This week, Denver faces the Vikings who are good for a few turnovers and some sloppy play. Available in 82 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every Friday and Sunday morning. Follow her on Twitter.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Week 12 Fantasy Picks: No Turkey Please

Thanksgiving is a time for thanks – for your family, health, work and home. And believe me, I am thankful for all. I feel wildly thankful for my funny family and my friends too. Thankful to get a paycheck for something I love. And thankful to come home every day to my sweet pups.

But this article isn’t about thanks. No, thank you. You may be counting your blessings, but I’m counting my stats. And my stats stink, Chris Johnson.

And I’m not done. Ahmad Bradshaw is on the mend. Eric Decker has gone missing (Tebow can throw, he’s just selfish), and Fred Jackson really was too good to be true. At one point, I was very thankful for Fred. We had a good thing going.

If the waiver wire is a Thanksgiving buffet, more potatoes and other beige side dishes, and less turkey, please.

I can’t believe I just wrote that.

Here are this week’s turkey-free wire picks:

Kevin Smith – You mean he’s not retired? That Kevin Smith? Yes, indeed, the former Lions RB is back on the team that cut him. And in bold style, might I add, with 201 all purpose yards and three touchdowns in his debut. With Jahvid Best on the shelf, Smith should be the starter. Gobble, gobble, Kevin. Available in 74 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Joe McKnight – With Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson sidelined, McKnight came through with 121 yards. His performance (and LT’s injury) has likely promoted him to second-in-command. McKnight is a good flex play vs. the Bills silly defense. Available in 87 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Matt Moore – I’ll admit this, I thought he’d be pretty bad. But Moore is decent. Not great, but perhaps good enough. And while it was just the Bills last weekend, he did throw three TDs. That’s good against anyone. With Schaub, Hasselbeck, Cassell and Cutler all down and out, there aren’t a lot of options left. Grab Moore, and make a wish. Available in 91 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Toby Gerhart – Adrian Peterson is all day, every day, except this Sunday. With A.D.’s ankle sprain, Gerhart will carry the load against the Falcons. Last Sunday’s performance wasn’t particularly memorable – three little fantasy points – but he’s good for a flex play. Available in 89 percent of Yahoo leagues.

C.J. Spiller – Three carries for two yards is kind of like the Spiller we’ve seen before. Yet he could be the starting running back for the Bills if Jackson is unable to play. And that’s good enough for a waiver wire grab. Plays a tough Jets defense, but worth a flex start. Available in 83 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every Friday and Sunday morning. Follow her on Twitter.



Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Week 11 Fantasy Picks: Reality Bites

Fantasy types get a bad rap. And I get it. We often cheer for hated players on rival teams. We agonize – I mean really agonize – over game-time decisions. We watch games that are otherwise meaningless (which is also a good thing). And if the score is tight, our quarterback taking a knee is like taking a knee to the gut.

Texans fans took a knee to the gut on Monday when they heard Matt Schaub’s fate: OUT FOR THE SEASON. I realize his prognosis isn’t conclusive yet, but all signs look bad.

Schaub is not on my roster. But he’s on my hometown team, and that’s more important to me. Maybe if I lived in New York or Boston where playoff appearances have rhythm and repetition, I wouldn’t take it so hard. But this is Houston. And we’ve never been good. Mediocrity is our high point.

All eyes are now on Matt Leinert who, I hope, is cancelling his bye-week Cabo vacation. He has a playbook to learn. If he can just protect the ball, the Texans have a chance. Of course, if Rick Smith calls me – you know, one GM to another – I might recommend scouting the wire for another option. Always good to have options. But too bad the Texans play in a 32-team league. That’s like a super crazy deep fantasy league. Not a lot of waiver options for his shopping cart.

Fantasy implications here: all receivers are demoted, naturally. Even Andre. Owen Daniels’ value remains about the same. Arian is good too. And you’ll pass on Leinert until he proves something.

The Texans will be fine, I keep telling myself. They just need Schaub in time for the Super Bowl.

Here are a few replacements to help with your injured or vacationing players.

Carson Palmer – I love starting the list with “I told you so.” Against the Chargers, Palmer posted 299 yards and two TDs. His schedule only gets better with Minnesota, Miami and Green Bay – all generous against the pass. Available in 59 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Harry Douglas – Poor Julio Jones was sent back to the bench with a hammy injury. Douglas wasted no time, nabbing eight catches for 133 yards against New Orleans. Look for Douglas to continue enjoying playing in Roddy White’s shadow. Available in 96 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Tim Tebow – Just two lousy passes against KC, yet he still tallied over 19 points. How? I dunno. But I did find a Tim Tebow-shaped potato chip. And that’s the only sign I need to continue starting him. I know, I know. This cannot last. No way. But play him until he fails. Or the chip breaks. Or I need a snack.

Kendall Hunter – Hunter filled in for a gimpy Gore with 40 yards and a touchdown last week. Gore is expected to play but Hunter is poised to gain more carries, and perhaps the lead role if Gore continues to ache… or he just needs a little rest with the playoffs approaching. If you don’t need him now, he’s a good one to stash for late season help. Available in 77 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Denarius Moore – What happened to Darrius Heyward-Bey? Moore has quickly become Palmer’s favorite with five catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns against San Diego. This week’s matchup is yummy too. Minnesota is yielding the second most points to opposing wide receivers. And yeah, I know – two Raiders on this list. Available in 39 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Want more, more, more? Listen to Erin Skelley every Friday and Sunday morning on SportsRadio 610. Follow her on Twitter.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Week 10 Fantasy Picks: Who To Trust

Yeah, Chris Johnson got his 100 yards week 9. Big deal. If a tree falls, but you benched that tree, did that tree really fall? Exactly my point.

It’s difficult predicting the breakout week. Or even believing a breakout player when you see him. Take Tim Tebow, who looks awkward, yet he’s accidentally succeeding. On Sunday, he threw for 124 yards and two touchdowns, while running for another 117 against Oakland. He’s still widely unclaimed (and mocked), yet he’s averaging 23.5 fantasy points over four games. Are you a believer yet? Not me.

Even veteran Eli Manning is making it hard to believe. I don’t think I’ve ever, ever written anything nice about him. Sure, he’s widely taken across all leagues. But he seems to make bad decisions all the time. All the time. And he commits dumb, painful turnovers. But he’s scoring, winning and thriving. Even without Hakeem Nicks. He’s averaging over 21 fantasy points per game this season. Yes, Eli Manning! Are you a believer yet? Not me.

It’s hard to ignore the name behind the numbers. For me, it’s not a bias, but a lack of confidence in their continued success. Tebow won’t continue down this path. Look at how defenses adjusted to Vick’s unorthodox play last year. They caught up. And he’s no Vick. As for Eli – the more you trust him, the more he’ll break your heart. The luck – and overcoming poor decision making – can’t last.

If you own them, good luck. But have a backup plan for the playoffs. I don’t trust them down the stretch. Same goes for CJ, whom I don’t even trust now. But I appreciate the flowers and all his text messages.

Here are this week’s waiver picks:

Laurent Robinson – Here’s to you, Mr. Robinson. In two games, the Cowboys wideout has 10 catches for 135 yards and two touchdowns. He looked good even before Miles Austin left the game with a pulled hamstring. He looks even better now with Austin out at least two weeks. Available in 82 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Roy Helu – The Redskins running back du jour put on a masterful performance Sunday with 14 receptions for 146 yards, and another 41 on the ground. Only two threats: Tashard Choice, who could be healthy enough to play this week, and Mike Shanahan because he’s Mike Shanahan. Helu should maintain the primary back, even if Choice steals a few carries. But how many times have we guessed the wrong Washington back? Available in 65 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Carson Palmer – Three touchdowns should quiet the critics. The former has-been-turned-starting-QB is looking much, much better after 332 yards and three scores on Sunday. The Thursday matchup against the Chargers bodes well for Palmer. San Diego’s a little soft against the pass, surrendering the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Available in 70 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Earl Bennett – In his first game back after a chest injury, Bennett reeled in five catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. I don’t remember him being this good. Do you? Probably a little lucky. Deep leagues only for the slot receiver. Available in 88 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Steve Breaston – Last week, Baldwin. This week, Breaston, who caught seven passes for 115 yards against the Dolphins. Tough choices moving forward, but consider Breaston a decent No. 3 WR. By the way, with Bowe in the mix too, think Killer B’s will catch on in KC? Available in 63 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Antonio Brown – Another impressive performance for Brown, who posted five receptions for 109 yards against the Ravens. What else do you want from him? How is he untaken? Available in 31 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Want more, more, more? Listen to Erin Skelley every Friday and Sunday morning on SportsRadio 610. Follow her on Twitter.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Week 9 Fantasy Picks And One Bad Breakup

Dear Chris Johnson,

I hope this letter finds you well. There’s no easy way to put this. I’m writing with some bad news. I’m at a point in my life where I know what I want. And I don’t think we’re compatible. I’ve come to the realization that I can’t change you. I’ve tried positive reinforcement. I’ve tried public humiliation. I’ve tried denial. Even vodka. I realize I can only control my own actions. I can’t make you rush better, or suddenly read defenses. And never mind finding the end zone. Worst of all, I can’t make you care. No matter how much I want it. No matter how much I beg. I’m sorry, but we’re done… Wait, what? Johnson has no trade value? OK, Chris, so let’s consider this a separation for now. You will sit on my bench with other misfits like DeAngelo Williams, while I test the field. Take care.

Hugs and Kisses,

Erin
|
P.S. Don’t worry. You won’t catch me throwing myself at Ringer.


Feeling a little burned, try out these picks:

Lance Ball – Denver is a mess. But check out Ball, who rushed for 63 yards on six carries. While Knowshon Moreno remains the lead back, Ball should get at least 50 yards vs. Oakland. Available everywhere.

Antonio Brown – Seems like an obvious play, but the Steelers stud is still available in 34 percent of Yahoo leagues. Pulled off another impressive performance against the Patriots this weekend with 67 yards and a score. Even more convincing is the 15 Roethlisberger targets. Get him.

Michael Crabtree – If you were burned by Crabtree 1.0, give the newer version a try. Reeled in a team-high five receptions for 54 yards against Cleveland, and is beginning to show rhythm with QB Alex Smith. Available in 59 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Chris Ogbonnaya – Replacing Hardesty, who left the game with a calf injury, Ogbonnaya rushed for 37 yards on 11 carries, including 16 receiving yards. Hardesty’s walking boot is a good sign for Chris. Same for Peyton’s hamstring. Claimed by the Browns as a third-down back, Ogbonnaya is promoted to potential starter. Of course, follow the injury reports before setting your lineup. Available in 99 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Javon Ringer – Not the slam dunk decision you may suspect, as he’s not much better than the leading brand. At 3.5 YPC, he doesn’t give you much, but perhaps he gives you hope. Deep leagues only. Available in 88 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Tashard Choice – Welcome to Washington, Tashard, home of the Shanahan merry-go-round. Once a fantasy playoff sensation, Choice could be just another Redskins frustration, or he could be the next starting running back. We know this for sure (ha!): Still nursing a sore hamstring, Choice will sit week 9. Looking ahead, he’s a possibility for week 10. Worth plucking and stashing. Available in 93 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Want the audio version of Erin Skelley? Listen every Friday and Sunday morning on SportsRadio 610. Follow Erin on Twitter.