It’s not just a question of who you should draft. Equally important – who to avoid. I’m baffled every year when those plagued with injuries, handcuffs, contract disputes and mental instability are drafted as high as they are. Each time I have the chance to draft one of these bozos, there is always someone else equally talented who doesn’t have this baggage. I don’t understand how they maintain their draft value. A little too much dependency on the average draft position, I suspect. But the rankings don’t tell the full story. They just tell you when other uneducated fans drafted them. And they were probably drinking and drafting.
Don’t get me wrong, these are draftable players. But they are likely overrated for the risk they pose. So unless you can get them at a TJ-Maxx-like bargain, pick someone else.
Vikings receivers – While Sidney Rice emerged as Brett Favre’s favorite target (1,312 yards, 8 TDs), his ailing hip gives me reason to pause. Percy Harvin’s chronic headaches also concern me. Does this make Bernard Berrian a better pick? Perhaps a better value. But late, of course. And they’re all worth a gamble, but again, probably not where they’re currently ranked.
Vincent Jackson – Yikes! Things are getting nasty in San Diego. Jackson was insulted by the $3.27 million offer. OMG, Vincent! And because he didn’t sign the tender offer, the Chargers suspended him for the first three games. How does this fit with his other suspension, resulting from a DUI? Both suspensions could run concurrent with each other, but he would have to sign by September 4 or it turns into six weeks total. Confused yet? San Diego has also cleared the way for trade talks with Seattle. This could go so many ways, and none of them really that good. Without the drama, Jackson is easily a top-10 wideout. Unfortunately, he’s now outside the top 20. Malcom Floyd’s value suddenly increases.
The curse of the Denver running back – The last few years, there is an evil spell on Denver backs. And it continues this year. Likely starter Knowshon Moreno has hamstring issues, Correll Buckhalter has a sore back and LenDale White has an injured leg, and a four-game drug suspension. Moreno and Buckhalter can benefit your team, but Moreno shouldn’t be considered anything more than a No. 2 back, and Buckhalter a No. 3, although he could be a good value at the 3-spot.
DeSean Jackson – I love DeSean Jackson. I reached for him in last year’s draft in two leagues because I love him that much. And he performed to task. But I’m concerned about his chemistry with Kevin Kolb. Jackson led the league in receptions of 40 yards or more (10), but Kolb will likely play a little safer than McNabb did and the potential for the big play just isn’t there. Jackson is still a great player, but I see him taking a step back this year in terms of fantasy production. He’s currently the No. 10-12 receiver taken. I would put him around 15-18.
The Patriots island of misfit running backs – Where do I begin? Bill Belichick has assembled a crew of mediocre running backs and combine that with his haphazard method of choosing a starter, and it’s anyone’s guess who will be lead rusher. These aren’t good candidates anyway – Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris and BenJarvis Green-Ellis. Maroney is likely the starter, but I have no confidence that will stick. And with a pass-first offense, does it really matter if we know who's starting?
The entire Bills offense – While Fred Jackson is the starter, what about C.J. Spiller? Spiller should start opening day, with Jackson banged up, but the job could go back to Jackson when he’s healthy. And what about Lee Evans, whose success rests in the hands of Trent Edwards? (don’t draft Edwards either). Spiller is a decent pick – just hard to predict how much he’ll play. Don’t draft him any earlier than the sixth round. And Jackson shouldn’t be drafted for anything other than a third RB or flex position. As for Evans, he should be considered a No. 3 wideout.
Dwayne Bowe – I actually think he’ll rebound, but he’s on this list because I’m too chicken to test him myself.
Sports Radio 610’s Fantasy Football Convention
Join Sports Radio 610 at Coaches in Katy this Friday at 7:30 p.m. SR610 will broadcast live beginning at 2 p.m. John McClain and I will join the rest of the crew at 7:30 for a panel discussion to help you with your fantasy questions. Hope to see you there!
Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at ERSkelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy football advice on Sports Radio 610 in Houston every Friday morning during the football season. And if you want more, more, more, check out Erin 's blog on FantasyPros911.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Fantasy football preview: sleepers
Let me explain. Before you roll your eyes, hear me out. These are sleepers. It makes sense for you to be skeptical. Even I am. If these were obvious picks, they wouldn’t be sleepers. Most, if not all, have flaws. But some are on the verge of doing great things. Of course, the key is picking the right ones.
Arian Foster – Let’s start right here in Houston where the battle for running back continues. What a mess last season was with Steve Slaton’s neck and hand problems and Chris Brown’s goal-line interception. Yes, interception. Foster was a bright spot the final two games, with 242 combined rushing/receiving yards and three touchdowns. But when the Texans signed Auburn standout Ben Tate, he seemed like the logical starter. But Slaton is reportedly healthy (according to Slaton) and Foster, the undrafted free agent from 2009, is impressing Gary Kubiak in practice. The opening day starter is still a question mark, but word from Texans camp is Tate isn’t quite ready, and Slaton has been seen handling punt returns. Starters don’t do that. Foster has a good shot as the opening day starter. Get him late and hope you get lucky.
Alex Smith – My friends and colleagues tried to dissuade me from including him on this list. If you start one QB, it should not be Smith. But he’s a great backup and well-suited as a No. 2 in two-QB leagues. Smith threw for 18 touchdowns in only 10 starts in 2009. Plus, Michael Crabtree is a key factor, instead of a maybe like last year. And let’s not forget Vernon Davis who compiled the best stats among all tight ends in 2009. I like Smith. It’s an unpopular opinion, but so is my love of math.
Jamaal Charles – If you read even one of my blogs last year, you know how I feel about Charles. I love him. If it weren’t for Larry Johnson, Charles would have been a top 10 back. But instead his prowess was contained to the second half of the season. In the final eight games, Charles ran for nearly 1,000 yards. A little worried about Thomas Jones, but he’s still worth a late second round or early third round pick, in a 12-team league.
Chad Henne – Chad Pennington’s injury gave way to Henne taking over as signal caller in Miami last season. His season stats aren’t impressive, but the final five games, Henne did pass for over 300 yards three times. The addition of Brandon Marshall gives him the solid threat he didn’t have in the disappointing Ted Ginn. Henne is obviously a backup, but a strong one.
Chester Taylor – While Matt Forte is the projected starter for the Bears, Taylor could earn himself a fair share of the carries, perhaps an even split. Taylor has good hands and speed, so I expect Mike Martz to take advantage of that. Taylor is worthy of a pickup in rounds 8-10.
Jacoby Jones – Yep, two Texans sleepers. Just put the whole team on this list. The fact is, Houston has a much improved team, with depth for the first time ever. Still, I feel like such a homer with two Texans here. Let’s look at the numbers. Jones had six touchdowns in 2009. That’s more than Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings and Dwyane Bowe. He has speed and flair, with the ability to make the big catch. He hasn’t established the No. 2 role yet, but he’s looking good at training camp. He’s worth a late round risk.
Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at ERSkelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy football advice on Sports Radio 610 in Houston every Friday during the football season. And if you want more, more, more, check out Erin 's blog on FantasyPros911.
Arian Foster – Let’s start right here in Houston where the battle for running back continues. What a mess last season was with Steve Slaton’s neck and hand problems and Chris Brown’s goal-line interception. Yes, interception. Foster was a bright spot the final two games, with 242 combined rushing/receiving yards and three touchdowns. But when the Texans signed Auburn standout Ben Tate, he seemed like the logical starter. But Slaton is reportedly healthy (according to Slaton) and Foster, the undrafted free agent from 2009, is impressing Gary Kubiak in practice. The opening day starter is still a question mark, but word from Texans camp is Tate isn’t quite ready, and Slaton has been seen handling punt returns. Starters don’t do that. Foster has a good shot as the opening day starter. Get him late and hope you get lucky.
Alex Smith – My friends and colleagues tried to dissuade me from including him on this list. If you start one QB, it should not be Smith. But he’s a great backup and well-suited as a No. 2 in two-QB leagues. Smith threw for 18 touchdowns in only 10 starts in 2009. Plus, Michael Crabtree is a key factor, instead of a maybe like last year. And let’s not forget Vernon Davis who compiled the best stats among all tight ends in 2009. I like Smith. It’s an unpopular opinion, but so is my love of math.
Jamaal Charles – If you read even one of my blogs last year, you know how I feel about Charles. I love him. If it weren’t for Larry Johnson, Charles would have been a top 10 back. But instead his prowess was contained to the second half of the season. In the final eight games, Charles ran for nearly 1,000 yards. A little worried about Thomas Jones, but he’s still worth a late second round or early third round pick, in a 12-team league.
Chad Henne – Chad Pennington’s injury gave way to Henne taking over as signal caller in Miami last season. His season stats aren’t impressive, but the final five games, Henne did pass for over 300 yards three times. The addition of Brandon Marshall gives him the solid threat he didn’t have in the disappointing Ted Ginn. Henne is obviously a backup, but a strong one.
Chester Taylor – While Matt Forte is the projected starter for the Bears, Taylor could earn himself a fair share of the carries, perhaps an even split. Taylor has good hands and speed, so I expect Mike Martz to take advantage of that. Taylor is worthy of a pickup in rounds 8-10.
Jacoby Jones – Yep, two Texans sleepers. Just put the whole team on this list. The fact is, Houston has a much improved team, with depth for the first time ever. Still, I feel like such a homer with two Texans here. Let’s look at the numbers. Jones had six touchdowns in 2009. That’s more than Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings and Dwyane Bowe. He has speed and flair, with the ability to make the big catch. He hasn’t established the No. 2 role yet, but he’s looking good at training camp. He’s worth a late round risk.Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at ERSkelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy football advice on Sports Radio 610 in Houston every Friday during the football season. And if you want more, more, more, check out Erin 's blog on FantasyPros911.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Fantasy football preview: Time Warner expert league
We’re just a few days into training camp, yet I’ve already made mistakes in my fantasy football league. Earlier this week, I participated in the Time Warner Expert League draft. The league will be spotlighted in Time Warner’s fantasy football preview show, which airs August 26-29 in Time Warner cable national markets. Herbie Teope, who co-hosts the show, has invited back participants to explain our strategies and picks, and possibly embarrass us on national TV.
Participants include:
1. Jay Clemons, Sports Illustrated
2. Michael Fabiano, NFL.com
3. Herbie Teope, Time Warner Cable
4. John Hansen, FantasyGuru.com
5. Dave Neilson, Time Warner Cable
6. William Del Pilar, KFFL.com
7. Mike Beacom, FootballDiehards.com, Pro Football Weekly
8. Chris Liss, RotoWire.com, Sirius-XM Radio
9. David Gonos, OPENSports.com
10. Erin Skelley, Sports Radio 610-Houston, FantasyPros911.com
11. Chris Weeks, FFTooltbox.com
12. Evan Silva, Rotoworld.com
I had the 10th pick in the 12-team, PPR, non-keeper league. Until the show airs, Herbie has asked that we only write about our own picks. But Herbie doesn’t know I can’t keep a secret, and Jay Clemons fielded his team with nothing but Cleveland Browns. Below I’ve listed my picks, as well as my comments and excuses.
1/10 – Aaron Rodgers - I don’t even listen to my own advice. You don’t need a quarterback in the first or second round. I wanted Phillip Rivers, Matt Schaub or Tony Romo later, in rounds four or five. That was my plan. Yet, I took Rodgers as my No. 1. The reason – Rashard Mendenhall was already taken, and I didn’t want to reach for Shonn Greene. I didn’t like anyone else around there. I’m a picky first round picker. I like safe picks. And this means passing on guys who share the ball, or who are injury prone. Sure, I’m happy with Rodgers. I love his ability to run the ball too; he’s the best rushing QB. But I just wish Mendenhall had been there, as this affected several other picks of mine. Chris Liss completely jacked with my strategy.
2/3 – Shonn Greene – Still available as I suspected. The Jets are a running team with a solid offensive line. Greene should get a lot of carries, and he showed he had talent in his limited playing time last year. Not concerned about LaDainian Tomlinson.
3/10 – Ryan Grant – Yep, I’m banking a lot on the Packers this season. Not intentional, but when I saw Grant was still available, I nabbed him. While not a superstar back, he’s steady, and I’ll take 10-14 points from him every week. Plus, he’s not expected to split carries, a growing trend in the NFL. What I like: Rodgers pitching the ball to Grant. What I don’t like: Week 10, their bye week.
4/3 – Michael Crabtree – I had planned to take a wide receiver in the third round, but when I saw Grant still available, I had to take him. That meant waiting for round four before taking my top wide receiver. I’m taking a bit of a gamble on Crabtree and I know the new trend in fantasy is loading up on stud wideouts. Crabtree remains a bit of a question mark, but he showed promise near the end of the season, and so did his QB Alex Smith.
5/10 – Pierre Garcon – With Anthony Gonzalez back, the speedy Garcon isn’t expected to produce the same way he did in 2009. But his 16.3 yards per catch are hard to ignore.
6/3 – Santana Moss – Another roll of the dice at WR, I expect Moss to improve with Redskins’ off-season acquisition Donovan McNabb. While I would avoid most Redskins, Moss has never had a strong QB. So even though McNabb’s value has declined, Moss’s has improved.
7/10 – Jerome Harrison – I drafted him before Montario Hardesty’s injury. Smart, huh? Harrison was expected to start anyway, but perhaps he’ll maintain the starting position longer. He certainly has a better chance now. Possibly my favorite pick of the draft.
8/3 – Steve Breaston – With Anquan Boldin in Baltimore , Breaston becomes the No. 2 in Arizona . Unfortunately, Matt Leinart is responsible for getting him the ball. But, if nothing else, I like this pick because OPENSports.com’s David Gonos wanted him. Reason enough.
9/10 – Visanthe Shiancoe – What was I thinking? I’m dreading spelling this name all season. I wanted Vernon Davis earlier in the draft. Easier to spell, plus he's better. But with so many tight ends, I didn’t really want to waste a top pick on one. Let’s hope Grandpa Favre drinks his Ensure this season.
10/3 – Jets Defense – I possibly reached a round early here, but I’d rather have the best defense, than the best bench player available in round 10.
11/10 – Arian Foster – Avoid anyone from the Texans’ running back trio of Foster, Steve Slaton and Ben Tate early. But if any of them are available in the mid to late rounds, take ‘em. They’re worth the risk. Still, no starter declared, although rumor is, Foster gets the job. The likelihood of this sticking – doubtful. Still, I’m happy with this pick in the 11th round.
12/3 – Alex Smith – With Eli Manning gone, I targeted Smith as my backup QB. Not a popular pick, but I like his weapons. Plus he transformed himself last year and finally showed the promise you want out of a No. 1 pick.
13/10 – Kevin Smith – With the addition of Jahvid Best, I don’t expect a lot from Smith. But that’s why he’s my 13th round pick.
14/3 – Golden Tate – If my family is reading this, I did not pick him because he bears the same name as my childhood hamster, Golden. Tate has a shot at the No. 2 WR role in Seattle.
15/10 – Glenn Coffee – Insurance only.
16/3 – Mason Crosby – He was available, so I picked him.
Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at ERSkelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy football advice on Sports Radio 610 in Houston every Friday during the football season. And if you want more, more, more, check out Erin 's blog on FantasyPros911.
Participants include:
1. Jay Clemons, Sports Illustrated
2. Michael Fabiano, NFL.com
3. Herbie Teope, Time Warner Cable
4. John Hansen, FantasyGuru.com
5. Dave Neilson, Time Warner Cable
6. William Del Pilar, KFFL.com
7. Mike Beacom, FootballDiehards.com, Pro Football Weekly
8. Chris Liss, RotoWire.com, Sirius-XM Radio
9. David Gonos, OPENSports.com
10. Erin Skelley, Sports Radio 610-Houston, FantasyPros911.com
11. Chris Weeks, FFTooltbox.com
12. Evan Silva, Rotoworld.com
I had the 10th pick in the 12-team, PPR, non-keeper league. Until the show airs, Herbie has asked that we only write about our own picks. But Herbie doesn’t know I can’t keep a secret, and Jay Clemons fielded his team with nothing but Cleveland Browns. Below I’ve listed my picks, as well as my comments and excuses.
1/10 – Aaron Rodgers - I don’t even listen to my own advice. You don’t need a quarterback in the first or second round. I wanted Phillip Rivers, Matt Schaub or Tony Romo later, in rounds four or five. That was my plan. Yet, I took Rodgers as my No. 1. The reason – Rashard Mendenhall was already taken, and I didn’t want to reach for Shonn Greene. I didn’t like anyone else around there. I’m a picky first round picker. I like safe picks. And this means passing on guys who share the ball, or who are injury prone. Sure, I’m happy with Rodgers. I love his ability to run the ball too; he’s the best rushing QB. But I just wish Mendenhall had been there, as this affected several other picks of mine. Chris Liss completely jacked with my strategy.
2/3 – Shonn Greene – Still available as I suspected. The Jets are a running team with a solid offensive line. Greene should get a lot of carries, and he showed he had talent in his limited playing time last year. Not concerned about LaDainian Tomlinson.
3/10 – Ryan Grant – Yep, I’m banking a lot on the Packers this season. Not intentional, but when I saw Grant was still available, I nabbed him. While not a superstar back, he’s steady, and I’ll take 10-14 points from him every week. Plus, he’s not expected to split carries, a growing trend in the NFL. What I like: Rodgers pitching the ball to Grant. What I don’t like: Week 10, their bye week.
4/3 – Michael Crabtree – I had planned to take a wide receiver in the third round, but when I saw Grant still available, I had to take him. That meant waiting for round four before taking my top wide receiver. I’m taking a bit of a gamble on Crabtree and I know the new trend in fantasy is loading up on stud wideouts. Crabtree remains a bit of a question mark, but he showed promise near the end of the season, and so did his QB Alex Smith.
5/10 – Pierre Garcon – With Anthony Gonzalez back, the speedy Garcon isn’t expected to produce the same way he did in 2009. But his 16.3 yards per catch are hard to ignore.
6/3 – Santana Moss – Another roll of the dice at WR, I expect Moss to improve with Redskins’ off-season acquisition Donovan McNabb. While I would avoid most Redskins, Moss has never had a strong QB. So even though McNabb’s value has declined, Moss’s has improved.
7/10 – Jerome Harrison – I drafted him before Montario Hardesty’s injury. Smart, huh? Harrison was expected to start anyway, but perhaps he’ll maintain the starting position longer. He certainly has a better chance now. Possibly my favorite pick of the draft.
8/3 – Steve Breaston – With Anquan Boldin in Baltimore , Breaston becomes the No. 2 in Arizona . Unfortunately, Matt Leinart is responsible for getting him the ball. But, if nothing else, I like this pick because OPENSports.com’s David Gonos wanted him. Reason enough.
9/10 – Visanthe Shiancoe – What was I thinking? I’m dreading spelling this name all season. I wanted Vernon Davis earlier in the draft. Easier to spell, plus he's better. But with so many tight ends, I didn’t really want to waste a top pick on one. Let’s hope Grandpa Favre drinks his Ensure this season.
10/3 – Jets Defense – I possibly reached a round early here, but I’d rather have the best defense, than the best bench player available in round 10.
11/10 – Arian Foster – Avoid anyone from the Texans’ running back trio of Foster, Steve Slaton and Ben Tate early. But if any of them are available in the mid to late rounds, take ‘em. They’re worth the risk. Still, no starter declared, although rumor is, Foster gets the job. The likelihood of this sticking – doubtful. Still, I’m happy with this pick in the 11th round.
12/3 – Alex Smith – With Eli Manning gone, I targeted Smith as my backup QB. Not a popular pick, but I like his weapons. Plus he transformed himself last year and finally showed the promise you want out of a No. 1 pick.
13/10 – Kevin Smith – With the addition of Jahvid Best, I don’t expect a lot from Smith. But that’s why he’s my 13th round pick.
14/3 – Golden Tate – If my family is reading this, I did not pick him because he bears the same name as my childhood hamster, Golden. Tate has a shot at the No. 2 WR role in Seattle.
15/10 – Glenn Coffee – Insurance only.
16/3 – Mason Crosby – He was available, so I picked him.
Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at ERSkelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy football advice on Sports Radio 610 in Houston every Friday during the football season. And if you want more, more, more, check out Erin 's blog on FantasyPros911.
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