Closing time

Oh, to have the job of the closer. Think about how great and unfair this job is. Your peers pitch 10-15 innings per week. You pitch two. Because you are the closer. You can eat, drink, and probably even smoke in the bullpen. You are the closer. You are the couch potato of the staff. But that’s ok. You are the closer. Head cases, nut jobs and flakes are not only accepted in this role, but often encouraged. Because you, my friend, are the closer.

I am trying to imagine myself as a closer in a normal office environment. I would work one hour a day, at most. I would grow a gut, wear sweatpants, and eat and slurp during meetings. I would sit in the corner, distracted by anything, everything. And as I finally speak up, my colleagues would go hysterical. And whatever I say solves all the company’s problems. That is, if I avoid taking on Albert Pujols.

With my great admiration for closers, this may surprise you: I think closers are overrated. Especially in fantasy. Just not enough innings to make a difference. I realize they have a high propensity for strkeouts. But one inning at a time, compared to five, six or seven from a starter. So that really only leaves you with the save category they can impact in a big way. My advice to you – draft your closers late. Save your high picks for players who will produce on a more regular basis.

That said, you still need a closer. Here are some sleepers you can draft late, very late.

Joakim Soria – Don’t let the Royals brand dissuade you. Soria will produce. Obviously, you want your closers on winning teams. But losers get saves too. And not only will Soria earn you a fare amount of saves, he’ll get a ton of strikeouts.

Rafael Soriano – The Rays new closer is just one more example of good closers available in late rounds. Not a top prospect, but should get you 30+ saves this year. His WHIP and strikeouts should yield you nice numbers as well.

Chad Qualls – I said sleeper! Qualls is better than you think, despite the 11ish Spring Training ERA. I realize he also dislocated his kneecap last year. But he’s recovered, and the Diammondbacks will count on him heavily this year.

Papi-razzi

Look at the David Ortiz look-a-like working as a bouncer at a Houston bar. Naturally, I asked if he would draft himself in fantasy baseball this year. He didn’t play along with me. Maybe I’d lose my sense of humor too if my draft value had plummeted. Ironic that Big Papi is checking IDs when he’s accused of doctoring his birth certificate…

Have a question for Erin? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy football advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday morning during the football season.

Fantasy baseball preview: rookie prospects

Stephen Strasburg was (gasp) demoted to Double-A Harrisburg yesterday. This was Washington’s plan all along. They weren’t going to blow a $15.1-million arm. Too many reasons to play it conservatively. 15.1 to be exact.

Arguably one of the best pitchers in NCAA history, the San Diego State phenom owns a fastball in the upper 90s-100, matched with an effective curveball that will yield him a high strikeout count. The Nationals want him to improve his delivery, plus he needs to develop his changeup. Never really needed this pitch in college, but to be an effective starter at the Major League level, he’ll need more than two pitches. His expected arrival date is mid-season.

Jason Heyward – Another one of the most anticipated prospects, Heyward is likely a starting outfielder for the Atlanta Braves. Heyward has all the skills – power, average, and speed. So far this spring, Heyward is hitting .444 with one home run and three stolen bases. At just 20 years old, the poor guy has been compared to Hank Aaron already (isn’t that a little much for a rookie?). His maturity will help keep the hype in check. And, obviously will help him in other ways too.

Neftali Feliz – This Rangers pup has electric stuff. At only 21 years old, Feliz boasts a 100-MPH fastball, a good curve and changeup. His exact role is TBD, but expect a low ERA and high strikeout count. His spring training outings have been spotty, showing some control issues, but the strikeouts are very nice.

Alcides Escobar – J.J. Hardy’s move to Minnesota made way for the speedy shortstop. Known for his defensive wizardry, Escobar has shown improvement with his bat, boasting a .406 average so far this spring training. No power, but a huge SB threat, and potential for good batting average and runs. Good news for Escobar, and for fantasy owners, is his defense will keep him in the lineup even when his bat shouldn’t, which help him get more comfortable, and more confidence at the plate.

Drew Stubbs – Expected to land the starting CF job, Stubbs gives you power and speed. He started slow this spring, but has improved his batting average to .276 with 5 homers.
With 46 steals in Triple-A last season, he’s likely to get a fair chance at starting, and leading off. Should give you good run production too. Needs to remain patient at the plate. Good sleeper pick here. By the way, has the Reds mascot always had that dorky moustache? I just noticed it. Looks a lot like the Pringles mascot.

Austin Jackson – Another candidate at centerfield, another speedy prospect. The young Tiger could give you decent stats across the board, but he needs to exercise more discipline at the plate, especially in the leadoff role. If you need stolen bases, take a look at Jackson in the late rounds.


Happy feet

Yes, those are my feet on my blog. But they earned it. Look where they are – on the Rockets court! By far, the best tickets I’ve ever had, I also witnessed one of the most exciting games this season as the Rockets nipped the Nuggets on a late Aaron Brooks 20-footer. I really wanted a player to land in my lap. I know people get injured that way, but I was willing to take that risk. That never happened, but the game ball did roll to me and I bounce-passed it back to the ref. That was cool. But the highlight for me was as Nuggets players left the court after the game. I was just a few feet away from them. I shouted to Chauncey Billups, “You’re on my fantasy team!” He paused, and pointed at me for several seconds. Yes, several. I think it lessened the pain of the loss. There, there, Chauncey. There, there.

Have a question for Erin? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy football advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday morning during the football season.

Don't ignore the signs

There are always warning signs. Look at Brad Lidge. You probably could have predicted his meltdown, right?

Geovany Soto looked like a rising star in 2008, but what a crummy 2009. Perhaps it was the trip to the World Baseball Classic. Such a curse. It’s like a pre-season home run derby.

But what about players who sustain injuries? Those are just bad, back luck. So unlucky. So we’ll blame Dice K’s unlucky stats on his unlucky injuries. Hmm, he was in the Classic too.

It may sound like excuses, but it’s more than that. It’s fantasy intuition. And we choose to see it or ignore it. It’s well documented. Look it up. Unfortunately, it’s often disregarded. After a player completely fails you, you look back at the warning signs, similar to that of a jaded relationship. In fact, I think one of Oprah’s book club conversations featured “seeing the signs.” And she doesn’t even play fantasy.

Some show up a little rounder and softer at spring training. Others sign big contracts and relax. Some are simply named Milton Bradley. Trust these things. And run.

Below is a short list of players who are question marks heading into 2010. Some are great values, and some great risks. I’ve assessed this group using my trusty part-stat/part-gut formula. And it’s a very complicated formula, not to mention patent pending.


Intuition says yes

Cole Hammels – Was 2009 a blip or a warning sign? His stats were terrible (for him), posting a 4.32 ERA, yielding a .274 batting average, and notching only 10 wins. Ross Ohlendorf had 11 wins with the Pirates. The Pirates! All reports indicate that Hammels will turn it around this year. He’s fully rested, which some blame for last year’s subpar performance. Fantasy owners could be nervous about burning a high draft pick on this question mark. Don’t be nervous. Take a look - he could be a real value.

Carlos Quentin –Without the injuries, Quentin’s 2009 campaign is likely very different. He is reportedly healthy at Spring Training. While I don’t expect 2008 numbers, I think he’s worth taking a chance and filling your third outfield spot.

Felipe Paulino – A lot of buzz at Astros camp surrounding this hurler. He has the goods, it’s just a matter of control and avoiding big innings. Fortunately for Paulino, who else do the Astros have? Still thinking? With a little less pressure on him, he should be able to settle down and earn 12 wins, and muster a middle-of-the road ERA, but should also get 100+ strikeouts. His WHIP could hurt you, but I’d settle for that if I’m getting strikeouts. Take him late.

Asdrubal Cabrera – He had a good season, so what’s he doing on this list? Not exactly a sleeper…at least not in the conventional sense. He should outperform his draft order, so he’s a sleeper to me. Boasting a .308 average, with 68 RBI and 17 SB, Cabrera is still underrated. He’s a top 8-10 short stop. And there’s a bonus – he’s still eligible at second base for at least one more year.

Juan Pierre – Pierre actually answered some questions for us last year when he filled in for the suspended Manny Ramirez. Still, he went back to the bench when he returned. Finally earning a starting spot with the White Sox, Pierre has a chance to burn the base paths all season. If he plays a full season, he’s likely to hit .300, steal 50 bases and score 100 runs.

Intuition says no

Raul Ibanez – When a player blossoms this late in his career, it’s hard to imagine a repeat performance. Add to that injuries. I think Ibanez will have a decent year, but expect a decline, so don’t overdraft him. He’s your No.2 or No. 3 outfielder, a demotion from last year.

Francisco Liriano – Too many issues here. His ERA inflated, his fastball failed him and his injuries benched him.

Brandon Webb – If the Diamondbacks declined his option, you should too. Too much risk here.

Ivan Rodriquez – You weren’t going to draft him, were you?

So...

The big question now is: does your intuition trust mine?

Have a question for Erin? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy football advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday morning during the football season.