Forty is not the new 30, even if you’re No. 4. The Wrangler-wearing Bret Favre is back in the NFL, thanks to a $12 million Minnesota Vikings deal, and a convenient plea from his 5-year old daughter to stick it to Green Bay. Doesn’t she know un-retiring is silly?
While we’re all annoyed, if you’re not in the NFC North, you probably don’t really care. Unless, of course, you play fantasy football. Because then, even players you are trying to ignore deserve consideration.
Favre could be a firecracker for the Vikings, giving them a sudden burst of passing prowess. But with a short fuse. Even if he provides great numbers, he doesn’t have the stamina or the health to sustain. I don’t see a big impact with Favre’s renaissance. I think defenses will respect his arm, and play for the long pass, which will open up the field for Adrian Peterson. I think he adds depth. And I think he makes his wide receivers a little more valuable. Just a little. But look at what else he adds: a fragile body and an AARP membership.
Bottom line: pass on Favre. Or, if you simply cannot resist, take him late. There are still 20+ quarterbacks you should take ahead of him. Remember in football, maturity is not always a compliment.
QB draft strategy
No doubt that Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are the top three quarterbacks on the draft board. Which QB puts up the best fantasy numbers is anyone’s guess. And it might not even be one of them. Close behind them in the second tier of passers are Phillip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers.
How important is a stud quarterback to the success of your team? Only once, I’ve drafted a QB in the first round, and that was only because all the good running backs were taken. I chose Peyton Manning over what felt like a second-round back. And I didn’t like it – just didn’t feel right leaving the first round without a running back. I don’t recommend a QB early on – just too many decent ones sprinkled throughout the rest of the draft. And think about the surprises too – the ones who go undrafted, or the ones you select as backups and earn the starting nod.
QB sleepers
Phillip Rivers - While not the traditional “sleeper,” I do think Rivers is more valuable than his average draft position (37). He led all quarterbacks in touchdown passes and boasted the best passer rating.
Matt Hasselbeck – Hasselbeck is healthy and strong. On Saturday night, he was 16-for-23 including two touchdowns. T.J. Housmandzadeh adds another talented target for the Seattle QB. Should be available late. Great backup QB, and possible trade bait.
Matt Schaub – Could be a breakout season for Schaub if he stays healthy. Has put together two solid back-to-back performances, going 7-for-7, and 11-for-16 respectively. Has one of the best targets in the league in Andre Johnson.
Matt Ryan – While he’s not fancy, he plays smart. Was perfect in Friday’s pre-season game going 7-for-7. The addition of Tony Gonzalez improves Ryan’s fantasy value.
Chad Ochocinco - Just kidding. But would you really be surprised if he made an appearance in the QB position? He gave an impressive performance as a substitute kicker/punter Thursday night. And he showed that when his foot is not in his mouth, he can do good things with it.
Have a question? E-mail Erin at erskelley@yahoo.com
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Fantasy football preview: running backs
This time last year as I plotted my draft strategy, I scribbled various running backs for consideration in the later rounds. Picking the sleepers is always my favorite part of draft preparation. There were third-down backs and third-stringers. They were unknown and unproven. I would have been satisfied if one had worked out.
How about three?
Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Darren McFadden. All drafted after round eight. McFadden turned out to be a bust because of injuries. But I also nabbed Michael Turner in round three. And did I mention LaDainian Tomlinson? Had him too. Nice set of backs for one team.
Think I can repeat that same draft kharma? Not a chance.
2008 was a special year. We saw a flurry of quality backs: DeAngelo Williams and Matt Forte, in addition to Slaton, Johnson and Turner. We also witnessed the reemergence of Thomas Jones, and Ronnie Brown's career year.
Rookie class
This year's rookie class doesn't compare to 2008. Still, take notice at a few of the prospects you can draft in the later rounds:
Donald Brown - Expected to split carries with Joseph Addai. While the veteran is expected to start the season with the majority of the carries, Brown should quickly earn a decent share of the load. The former Husky is highly regarded as a talented, smart player who gives the Colts a lot of tools in the backfield.
Knowshon Moreno – The first running back taken in the 2009 draft is expected to be the biggest impact rookie. The former Georgia back ranks sixth in rushing yards (2,734) and touchdowns (30), despite spending only two seasons with the Bulldogs. He does it all. Very athletic, good hands. Denver will have high expectations from the beginning, and he should see considerable playing time from day one. Hopefully, Moreno can avoid the Broncos injury epidemic that plagued six starting running backs last season.
LeSean McCoy – The Eagles plan to give the second-rounder decent playing time, although Brian Westbrook remains the go-to guy. McCoy just turned 21 in July compared to Westbrook, who turns 30 in September, and is also recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason. The former Panther gives the Eagles the same talent as Westbrook, minus all the miles on his knees. The Eagles must reduce Westbrook’s workload if they want his knees to last into January. The only concern is McCoy's ability to block, which would limit his playing time if that becomes a liability.
My fab five
Two variables provide considerable turmoil for fantasy owners – injuries and platoons. That quickly disqualifies DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson (both running backs by committee) and Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook (both injury prone). No denying their talent, but I don’t like the risks. My fab five includes the top talent, but also the players who have the most opportunities and the fewest red flags.
Adrian Peterson – All Day. Of course. The best back in the game. Plus, the Vikings use a true featured back system, which is important to fantasy owners.
Michael Turner – Free agency was good to him after serving as LT’s backup for four years. Expected to provide solid fantasy numbers again. Only concern is the 2009 schedule is considerably stronger. His best games in 2008 were against weak opponents. Needs to prove he can hold his own against a talented line.
Matt Forte – The addition of Jay Cutler gives the Bears more options - and distractions - making Forte a more effective and improved back this year. Look for a strong sophomore performance out of Forte.
Maurice Jones-Drew – His ranking improves over last year as the Jaguars have dropped Fred Taylor. Even splitting caries in 2008, he posted impressive numbers, which is why his stock has soared with a lone-back system now in place. By the way, MJD will tell you to draft him No. 1. Really. He loves fantasy football and making his owners proud.
Steve Slaton – The sophomore back surprised even the Houston Texans who put him third in line last season. Great choice if your league gives points for receptions. An all-around improved Texans squad gives Slaton more support and more opportunities to score.
The Knuckle Ball: a pitch for life
Thanks to everyone who joined the Houston Astros and the Joe Niekro Foundation at last week's Knuckle Ball gala, in memory of former Houston Astros pitcher Joe Niekro. Over $400,000 was raised for brain aneurysm research for the Methodist Neurological Institute, here in Houston. Many of Joe's former teammates and friends joined us, including Ozzie Smith shown here with me. It was a really special night, especially for sports fans, and especially for me. I hope to see you next year - it's for a really good cause. If you have questions about sponsorship or tickets, please call me at 832-667-5804 or e-mail me at erskelley@yahoo.com.
Have a question? E-mail Erin at erskelley@yahoo.com.
How about three?
Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Darren McFadden. All drafted after round eight. McFadden turned out to be a bust because of injuries. But I also nabbed Michael Turner in round three. And did I mention LaDainian Tomlinson? Had him too. Nice set of backs for one team.
Think I can repeat that same draft kharma? Not a chance.
2008 was a special year. We saw a flurry of quality backs: DeAngelo Williams and Matt Forte, in addition to Slaton, Johnson and Turner. We also witnessed the reemergence of Thomas Jones, and Ronnie Brown's career year.
Rookie class
This year's rookie class doesn't compare to 2008. Still, take notice at a few of the prospects you can draft in the later rounds:
Donald Brown - Expected to split carries with Joseph Addai. While the veteran is expected to start the season with the majority of the carries, Brown should quickly earn a decent share of the load. The former Husky is highly regarded as a talented, smart player who gives the Colts a lot of tools in the backfield.
Knowshon Moreno – The first running back taken in the 2009 draft is expected to be the biggest impact rookie. The former Georgia back ranks sixth in rushing yards (2,734) and touchdowns (30), despite spending only two seasons with the Bulldogs. He does it all. Very athletic, good hands. Denver will have high expectations from the beginning, and he should see considerable playing time from day one. Hopefully, Moreno can avoid the Broncos injury epidemic that plagued six starting running backs last season.
LeSean McCoy – The Eagles plan to give the second-rounder decent playing time, although Brian Westbrook remains the go-to guy. McCoy just turned 21 in July compared to Westbrook, who turns 30 in September, and is also recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason. The former Panther gives the Eagles the same talent as Westbrook, minus all the miles on his knees. The Eagles must reduce Westbrook’s workload if they want his knees to last into January. The only concern is McCoy's ability to block, which would limit his playing time if that becomes a liability.
My fab five
Two variables provide considerable turmoil for fantasy owners – injuries and platoons. That quickly disqualifies DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson (both running backs by committee) and Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook (both injury prone). No denying their talent, but I don’t like the risks. My fab five includes the top talent, but also the players who have the most opportunities and the fewest red flags.
Adrian Peterson – All Day. Of course. The best back in the game. Plus, the Vikings use a true featured back system, which is important to fantasy owners.
Michael Turner – Free agency was good to him after serving as LT’s backup for four years. Expected to provide solid fantasy numbers again. Only concern is the 2009 schedule is considerably stronger. His best games in 2008 were against weak opponents. Needs to prove he can hold his own against a talented line.
Matt Forte – The addition of Jay Cutler gives the Bears more options - and distractions - making Forte a more effective and improved back this year. Look for a strong sophomore performance out of Forte.
Maurice Jones-Drew – His ranking improves over last year as the Jaguars have dropped Fred Taylor. Even splitting caries in 2008, he posted impressive numbers, which is why his stock has soared with a lone-back system now in place. By the way, MJD will tell you to draft him No. 1. Really. He loves fantasy football and making his owners proud.
Steve Slaton – The sophomore back surprised even the Houston Texans who put him third in line last season. Great choice if your league gives points for receptions. An all-around improved Texans squad gives Slaton more support and more opportunities to score.
The Knuckle Ball: a pitch for life
Thanks to everyone who joined the Houston Astros and the Joe Niekro Foundation at last week's Knuckle Ball gala, in memory of former Houston Astros pitcher Joe Niekro. Over $400,000 was raised for brain aneurysm research for the Methodist Neurological Institute, here in Houston. Many of Joe's former teammates and friends joined us, including Ozzie Smith shown here with me. It was a really special night, especially for sports fans, and especially for me. I hope to see you next year - it's for a really good cause. If you have questions about sponsorship or tickets, please call me at 832-667-5804 or e-mail me at erskelley@yahoo.com.Have a question? E-mail Erin at erskelley@yahoo.com.
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