Week 16 Fantasy Picks: Be A Fake Super Bowl Champion

This is it. The weekend you’ve been waiting for. Grab some salty snacks, find a comfy couch and a giant TV. Make sure to mute your phone, your kids and your dog. The Super Bowl is here.

Fake Super Bowl, that is.

Yes, this is the biggest weekend of your year. And friends and family should share in your excitement and stand ready with expensive champagne as you approach Super Bowl weekend.

Fake Super Bowl, that is.

Real or not, cheers to you. You’ve earned this. Your work is unparalleled. Your addiction to stat tracker and Twitter is paramount. Your quirky tendency to ignore and abandon all family responsibilities on Sundays (and some Mondays too) is extraordinary. And your ability to repeatedly watch Jacksonville on prime-time TV is unimaginable.

Unfortunately, my friend, there’s a big difference between your pretend game and the real thing.

No one cares.

Really. Seriously. No one. No matter how big the obstacle you overcame, or how badly you embarrassed your opponent, no one cares. Not even me. I’m not kidding. So break out the champagne for one. And enjoy it. Quietly.

Here are this week’s pickups. And yes, I’m jealous.

Kahlil Bell – I guess fumbling and poor time management can cost you a starting job. Bell took advantage of Marion Barber’s late game goofs that cost the Bears in week 14’s contest against the Broncos. Bell answered with 108 yards and a touchdown against a tough Seattle defense. Look for Bell to keep ringing this week against the Packers, who yield the 13th most fantasy points to running backs. Available in 91 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Donald Brown – Just when it looked like the Colts were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, Donald Brown comes through with 161 yards and an 80-yard TD score. Yeah, I know he plays the Texans, who are the second best against the run. Still, he’s a worthy flex play. Available in 78 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Darius Heyward-Bey – With two (and nearly three) consecutive 10+ point performances, DHB finds himself on this list. While silenced in mid-season, the Oakland wideout has come alive with injuries to Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford. Available in 74 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Rex Grossman – What can I say? He has good matchups. First the Patriots, then the Giants, now the Vikings. Good deep league or 2QB start. Available in 83 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every Friday and Sunday morning. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 15 Fantasy Picks: Yates An Option?

The unthinkable can happen. T.J. Yates showed us on Sunday. With a playoff bid on the line, the rookie showed grit. Trailing 19-13 to the Cincinnati Bengals, Yates capped a 2-minute, 80-yard drive, finding Kevin Walter in the end zone in the final seconds for a Houston Texans win. Rookies don’t do that. But the unthinkable happened.

Rewind 24 hours when fantasy owners were frantically setting their playoff lineups. Anyone who asked me, “Yates or this guy” got an answer you can probably guess. The reason is simple. I use stats and trends to drive my decisions. Not gut feelings. And certainly not team loyalties. I think Yates has potential, and I’ve heard a dozen national analysts rave about his pocket awareness and intangibles. But I don’t take wild chances on the unknown. He had seven quarters of NFL experience prior to Sunday. Seven quarters. But the unthinkable happened.

And it happened elsewhere. Who predicted DeMarco Murray or Greg Jennings would become early casualties Sunday? Or that Ahmad Bradshaw would break team rules and sit half the game? And how about Jake Locker’s nearly heroic effort? Or Rex Grossman’s 252 yards and two TDs? I mean, wow! OK, I did predict that one. Pretty good, huh?

Even with the best stats and predictor models, the unthinkable happens. It’s sports. And the unpredictability is its charm, right? But I’ll still rely on my nerdy numbers and research. And I won’t always be right. But if you think the advice stinks, do what feels right to you. It’s your team.

Congratulations and good luck to those still alive in the playoffs.

Here are this week’s wire picks:

Rex Grossman – Here’s a pick worth repeating. Grossman came through on Sunday with 252 yards and two scores. Yeah, he faced the Patriots, the worst pass defense in the league. Well guess what. This week he faces the Giants, the second worst in the league. Rexy’s worth another start. Still available in 87 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Felix Jones – The most obvious pick of them all, meet Felix Jones, who ran for 106 yards after replacing the injured DeMarco Murray. Jones is not only a must-grab, but a must-start, as he faces the run-friendly Tampa defense, which yields the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Available in 36 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Cincinnati defense – Matchups matter. Cincy faces the woeful Rams, who make any defense look good. The Bengals are decent, and that’s good enough to take advantage of St. Louis. Available in 42 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Ryan Grant – With James Starks nursing an injured ankle, Grant dazzled with 85 yards and two touchdowns. Starks remains a question mark this Sunday, but if the Packers choose to rest him, Grant will enjoy the yummy KC defense (sixth worst in the league against fantasy RBs). Check the injury report before game time. Available in 54 percent of Yahoo leagues.

T.J. Yates – As I said above, let the stats tell the story. And while his stats (558 yards, three TDs in 2+ games) only provide a small sample size, Carolina’s stats tell the full story. The Panthers give up the 10th most points to opposing quarterbacks. If you need to reach, the rookie QB is a decent start. Especially if Andre Johnson returns. Available in 94 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every Friday and Sunday morning. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 14 Fantasy Picks: Playoff Planning

Every Sunday, I join John Lopez, Brad Davies and ND Kalu on the Houston Texans pre-game show for a quick fantasy football segment. And every week, the trio asks me about the Texans, their opponent, and other interesting finds and sneaky pickups. They inquire about specific matchups, injuries and other key factors. And every week, they ask about Rex Grossman. Every week. Even when he’s not starting. Even when he has no relevance. And we chuckle every single time. Maybe it’s good luck or just silly. Or maybe he’s the Slippery Rock of fantasy football.

Well, listen up guys. This week, it’s not a joke. Rex Grossman is actually a decent play. For real. He’s had some weeks (repeat, some) with respectable numbers, but not strong enough to actually recommend moving forward. The reward has never justified the risk. But with gimpy quarterbacks, you have to look beyond the obvious, especially if your wire is stingy. This week, Rexy faces the pitiful Patriots pass defense. Add to that, the Skins receivers Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney are a bigger part of the offense now (when they aren’t facing the Jets).

So, why take chances now and not week 6, or 7 or 8? Where is this moxy coming from? It’s the playoffs. You are playing week to week. There is no long-term relevance. And handcuffs don’t matter. If you’ve ever wanted a one-game stand, this is your chance to do it. Guilt-free.

Congratulations to the fortunate few, and good luck the rest of the season.

Here are a few pickups to finish out that playoff roster:

Marion Barber – Caleb Hanie’s arm + Matt Forte’s knee = Marion Barber waiver pick. The Bears will try to pass as little as possible with a shaky Hanie at the helm. Barber, coming off a 44-yard performance in relief of Forte, will see an extended workload, getting the start – and getting the entire game plan on his shoulders. While the Broncos have allowed only one rushing touchdown, they’re still just average against fantasy RBs. Barber is a good No. 2 start in all formats. Available in 64 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Toby Gerhart – Adrian Peterson’s backup contributed big on Sunday with 91 yards on the ground and 42 in the air. Detroit’s stout defense presents a challenge for the young Gerhart, but he’s good for 10-12 fantasy points. Available in 59 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Dexter McCluster – Not exactly the model for consistency, but if you’re looking to fill a running back hole, look to McCluster who totaled over 100 YFS on Sunday. With this week’s matchup against the run-stopping New York Jets, you can expect a modest 50-60 yards. Desperate and deep formats only. Available in 64 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Malcom Floyd – Nice comeback for Floyd, who reeled in four receptions for 108 yards in San Diego’s win over Jacksonville. A good matchup this weekend vs. the Bills means Floyd’s good fortune should continue. Expect 80+ yards. Available in 59 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Rex Grossman – I was serious.

Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every Friday and Sunday morning. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 13 Fantasy Picks: Playoffs or Bust

Thanksgiving was good to me. DeAngelo, CJ and my other little underachievers stepped up. And stepped up big. Thanks to them, I’ve secured playoff spots in both leagues. So now, it’s playoff prep time. If you’re a playoff lock, start thinking ahead – look to favorable matchups down the road, scout the waiver wire and make sure your lineup is ready. If you’re sweating out week 13, hoping for a sixth place finish, do whatever it takes to get that golden ticket.

Here are a few pickups to help you in the playoff drive. Good luck to all!

Donald Brown – Even as one of my waiver recommendations last week, my expectations weren’t very high. Now I think Brown’s a “must-grab” in all formats, following his performance on Sunday with 80 yards and a touchdown. Joseph Addai only mustered 23 yards on seven carries. Hard to tell if Addai’s hamstring was the cause of his limited play or if his poor production benched him. Either way, Brown stands to gain more carries week 13. Available in 87 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Mo Morris – Poor Kevin Smith left the Thanksgiving table early. Morris stepped in with 120 YFS. With Jahvid Best out of the picture, and Smith looking iffy, look to Morris to get a considerable share of the carries. New Orleans is weak against the rush, surrendering the tenth most points to opposing running backs. Available in 62 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Kendall Hunter – Hunter is a repeat recommendation as my Frank Gore concerns continue. With just 39 yards on 14 carries, Gore isn’t himself. The extra rest after playing Thursday should benefit the star receiver, but think of Hunter as a grab-and-stash guy. You may not need him this Sunday, but think long term. Available in 66 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Roy Helu – Maybe, just maybe we have a Redskins running back we can trust. With 108 yards on the ground, and 54 in the air, Helu has secured the starting slot. Maybe. Hopefully. Not confident in wishing? Rest assured, Mike Shanahan has spoken, and Helu is the week 13 starter. I actually believe him this time. As always, I am compelled to remind you, there is risk in starting any Shanahan RB. Available in 51 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Denver defense – Let’s give the defense some credit for the Broncos hot streak, yielding only 36 real points to opposing teams over three weeks. This week, Denver faces the Vikings who are good for a few turnovers and some sloppy play. Available in 82 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every Friday and Sunday morning. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 12 Fantasy Picks: No Turkey Please

Thanksgiving is a time for thanks – for your family, health, work and home. And believe me, I am thankful for all. I feel wildly thankful for my funny family and my friends too. Thankful to get a paycheck for something I love. And thankful to come home every day to my sweet pups.

But this article isn’t about thanks. No, thank you. You may be counting your blessings, but I’m counting my stats. And my stats stink, Chris Johnson.

And I’m not done. Ahmad Bradshaw is on the mend. Eric Decker has gone missing (Tebow can throw, he’s just selfish), and Fred Jackson really was too good to be true. At one point, I was very thankful for Fred. We had a good thing going.

If the waiver wire is a Thanksgiving buffet, more potatoes and other beige side dishes, and less turkey, please.

I can’t believe I just wrote that.

Here are this week’s turkey-free wire picks:

Kevin Smith – You mean he’s not retired? That Kevin Smith? Yes, indeed, the former Lions RB is back on the team that cut him. And in bold style, might I add, with 201 all purpose yards and three touchdowns in his debut. With Jahvid Best on the shelf, Smith should be the starter. Gobble, gobble, Kevin. Available in 74 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Joe McKnight – With Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson sidelined, McKnight came through with 121 yards. His performance (and LT’s injury) has likely promoted him to second-in-command. McKnight is a good flex play vs. the Bills silly defense. Available in 87 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Matt Moore – I’ll admit this, I thought he’d be pretty bad. But Moore is decent. Not great, but perhaps good enough. And while it was just the Bills last weekend, he did throw three TDs. That’s good against anyone. With Schaub, Hasselbeck, Cassell and Cutler all down and out, there aren’t a lot of options left. Grab Moore, and make a wish. Available in 91 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Toby Gerhart – Adrian Peterson is all day, every day, except this Sunday. With A.D.’s ankle sprain, Gerhart will carry the load against the Falcons. Last Sunday’s performance wasn’t particularly memorable – three little fantasy points – but he’s good for a flex play. Available in 89 percent of Yahoo leagues.

C.J. Spiller – Three carries for two yards is kind of like the Spiller we’ve seen before. Yet he could be the starting running back for the Bills if Jackson is unable to play. And that’s good enough for a waiver wire grab. Plays a tough Jets defense, but worth a flex start. Available in 83 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every Friday and Sunday morning. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 11 Fantasy Picks: Reality Bites

Fantasy types get a bad rap. And I get it. We often cheer for hated players on rival teams. We agonize – I mean really agonize – over game-time decisions. We watch games that are otherwise meaningless (which is also a good thing). And if the score is tight, our quarterback taking a knee is like taking a knee to the gut.

Texans fans took a knee to the gut on Monday when they heard Matt Schaub’s fate: OUT FOR THE SEASON. I realize his prognosis isn’t conclusive yet, but all signs look bad.

Schaub is not on my roster. But he’s on my hometown team, and that’s more important to me. Maybe if I lived in New York or Boston where playoff appearances have rhythm and repetition, I wouldn’t take it so hard. But this is Houston. And we’ve never been good. Mediocrity is our high point.

All eyes are now on Matt Leinert who, I hope, is cancelling his bye-week Cabo vacation. He has a playbook to learn. If he can just protect the ball, the Texans have a chance. Of course, if Rick Smith calls me – you know, one GM to another – I might recommend scouting the wire for another option. Always good to have options. But too bad the Texans play in a 32-team league. That’s like a super crazy deep fantasy league. Not a lot of waiver options for his shopping cart.

Fantasy implications here: all receivers are demoted, naturally. Even Andre. Owen Daniels’ value remains about the same. Arian is good too. And you’ll pass on Leinert until he proves something.

The Texans will be fine, I keep telling myself. They just need Schaub in time for the Super Bowl.

Here are a few replacements to help with your injured or vacationing players.

Carson Palmer – I love starting the list with “I told you so.” Against the Chargers, Palmer posted 299 yards and two TDs. His schedule only gets better with Minnesota, Miami and Green Bay – all generous against the pass. Available in 59 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Harry Douglas – Poor Julio Jones was sent back to the bench with a hammy injury. Douglas wasted no time, nabbing eight catches for 133 yards against New Orleans. Look for Douglas to continue enjoying playing in Roddy White’s shadow. Available in 96 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Tim Tebow – Just two lousy passes against KC, yet he still tallied over 19 points. How? I dunno. But I did find a Tim Tebow-shaped potato chip. And that’s the only sign I need to continue starting him. I know, I know. This cannot last. No way. But play him until he fails. Or the chip breaks. Or I need a snack.

Kendall Hunter – Hunter filled in for a gimpy Gore with 40 yards and a touchdown last week. Gore is expected to play but Hunter is poised to gain more carries, and perhaps the lead role if Gore continues to ache… or he just needs a little rest with the playoffs approaching. If you don’t need him now, he’s a good one to stash for late season help. Available in 77 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Denarius Moore – What happened to Darrius Heyward-Bey? Moore has quickly become Palmer’s favorite with five catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns against San Diego. This week’s matchup is yummy too. Minnesota is yielding the second most points to opposing wide receivers. And yeah, I know – two Raiders on this list. Available in 39 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Want more, more, more? Listen to Erin Skelley every Friday and Sunday morning on SportsRadio 610. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 10 Fantasy Picks: Who To Trust

Yeah, Chris Johnson got his 100 yards week 9. Big deal. If a tree falls, but you benched that tree, did that tree really fall? Exactly my point.

It’s difficult predicting the breakout week. Or even believing a breakout player when you see him. Take Tim Tebow, who looks awkward, yet he’s accidentally succeeding. On Sunday, he threw for 124 yards and two touchdowns, while running for another 117 against Oakland. He’s still widely unclaimed (and mocked), yet he’s averaging 23.5 fantasy points over four games. Are you a believer yet? Not me.

Even veteran Eli Manning is making it hard to believe. I don’t think I’ve ever, ever written anything nice about him. Sure, he’s widely taken across all leagues. But he seems to make bad decisions all the time. All the time. And he commits dumb, painful turnovers. But he’s scoring, winning and thriving. Even without Hakeem Nicks. He’s averaging over 21 fantasy points per game this season. Yes, Eli Manning! Are you a believer yet? Not me.

It’s hard to ignore the name behind the numbers. For me, it’s not a bias, but a lack of confidence in their continued success. Tebow won’t continue down this path. Look at how defenses adjusted to Vick’s unorthodox play last year. They caught up. And he’s no Vick. As for Eli – the more you trust him, the more he’ll break your heart. The luck – and overcoming poor decision making – can’t last.

If you own them, good luck. But have a backup plan for the playoffs. I don’t trust them down the stretch. Same goes for CJ, whom I don’t even trust now. But I appreciate the flowers and all his text messages.

Here are this week’s waiver picks:

Laurent Robinson – Here’s to you, Mr. Robinson. In two games, the Cowboys wideout has 10 catches for 135 yards and two touchdowns. He looked good even before Miles Austin left the game with a pulled hamstring. He looks even better now with Austin out at least two weeks. Available in 82 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Roy Helu – The Redskins running back du jour put on a masterful performance Sunday with 14 receptions for 146 yards, and another 41 on the ground. Only two threats: Tashard Choice, who could be healthy enough to play this week, and Mike Shanahan because he’s Mike Shanahan. Helu should maintain the primary back, even if Choice steals a few carries. But how many times have we guessed the wrong Washington back? Available in 65 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Carson Palmer – Three touchdowns should quiet the critics. The former has-been-turned-starting-QB is looking much, much better after 332 yards and three scores on Sunday. The Thursday matchup against the Chargers bodes well for Palmer. San Diego’s a little soft against the pass, surrendering the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Available in 70 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Earl Bennett – In his first game back after a chest injury, Bennett reeled in five catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. I don’t remember him being this good. Do you? Probably a little lucky. Deep leagues only for the slot receiver. Available in 88 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Steve Breaston – Last week, Baldwin. This week, Breaston, who caught seven passes for 115 yards against the Dolphins. Tough choices moving forward, but consider Breaston a decent No. 3 WR. By the way, with Bowe in the mix too, think Killer B’s will catch on in KC? Available in 63 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Antonio Brown – Another impressive performance for Brown, who posted five receptions for 109 yards against the Ravens. What else do you want from him? How is he untaken? Available in 31 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Want more, more, more? Listen to Erin Skelley every Friday and Sunday morning on SportsRadio 610. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 9 Fantasy Picks And One Bad Breakup

Dear Chris Johnson,

I hope this letter finds you well. There’s no easy way to put this. I’m writing with some bad news. I’m at a point in my life where I know what I want. And I don’t think we’re compatible. I’ve come to the realization that I can’t change you. I’ve tried positive reinforcement. I’ve tried public humiliation. I’ve tried denial. Even vodka. I realize I can only control my own actions. I can’t make you rush better, or suddenly read defenses. And never mind finding the end zone. Worst of all, I can’t make you care. No matter how much I want it. No matter how much I beg. I’m sorry, but we’re done… Wait, what? Johnson has no trade value? OK, Chris, so let’s consider this a separation for now. You will sit on my bench with other misfits like DeAngelo Williams, while I test the field. Take care.

Hugs and Kisses,

Erin
|
P.S. Don’t worry. You won’t catch me throwing myself at Ringer.


Feeling a little burned, try out these picks:

Lance Ball – Denver is a mess. But check out Ball, who rushed for 63 yards on six carries. While Knowshon Moreno remains the lead back, Ball should get at least 50 yards vs. Oakland. Available everywhere.

Antonio Brown – Seems like an obvious play, but the Steelers stud is still available in 34 percent of Yahoo leagues. Pulled off another impressive performance against the Patriots this weekend with 67 yards and a score. Even more convincing is the 15 Roethlisberger targets. Get him.

Michael Crabtree – If you were burned by Crabtree 1.0, give the newer version a try. Reeled in a team-high five receptions for 54 yards against Cleveland, and is beginning to show rhythm with QB Alex Smith. Available in 59 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Chris Ogbonnaya – Replacing Hardesty, who left the game with a calf injury, Ogbonnaya rushed for 37 yards on 11 carries, including 16 receiving yards. Hardesty’s walking boot is a good sign for Chris. Same for Peyton’s hamstring. Claimed by the Browns as a third-down back, Ogbonnaya is promoted to potential starter. Of course, follow the injury reports before setting your lineup. Available in 99 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Javon Ringer – Not the slam dunk decision you may suspect, as he’s not much better than the leading brand. At 3.5 YPC, he doesn’t give you much, but perhaps he gives you hope. Deep leagues only. Available in 88 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Tashard Choice – Welcome to Washington, Tashard, home of the Shanahan merry-go-round. Once a fantasy playoff sensation, Choice could be just another Redskins frustration, or he could be the next starting running back. We know this for sure (ha!): Still nursing a sore hamstring, Choice will sit week 9. Looking ahead, he’s a possibility for week 10. Worth plucking and stashing. Available in 93 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Want the audio version of Erin Skelley? Listen every Friday and Sunday morning on SportsRadio 610. Follow Erin on Twitter.

Week 8 Fantasy Picks

Not even DeMarco Murray could save me. His 253-yard, TD performance was lost on my team. Three more DeMarcos would have worked. Possibly. But instead, my arsenal included Mo Morris, Marshawn Lynch and Chris Johnson. Are you laughing yet? Thank you, Pete Carroll, for unleashing your covert running back cover-up. You fooled everyone. Somewhere Mike Shanahan is giving you the knuckle. Fantasy owners, on the other hand…

And CJ, you have annoyed, frustrated and befuddled me to my very core. I am beyond despair and disbelief that I drafted someone who plays with such lackluster and indifference. And despite my best attempts, no thesaurus can help me find more adjectives to describe my outrage. You, my friend, are a thief. The only consolation – and it’s a good one – is knowing Titans fans are suffering more.

But good luck against Indy. I believe in you.

Now, on to this week’s waiver picks:

Bernard Scott – Does Cedric Benson even remember why he’s being punished? I’ve already forgotten. But I have not forgotten about Bernard who is squatting on valuable bench space. Even though Seattle is tough against the run, with the bye weeks in bloom, Scott is a viable No. 2 back. Yes, even with his measly 2.8 yards per carry. Dream big, Bernard! Available in 82 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Demaryius Thomas – What playbook? Tim Tebow’s Mad Lib offense is nutty. It’s hard to predict who will get the ball when even Timmy doesn’t know. While entertaining for the fan, his little improvised game plan was not so entertaining for the fantasy owner. Thomas was the carnival winner last week with 27 yards, a touchdown and a leaky snow cone. If you’re in a deep league or bye week drama, Thomas is worth a look. Available in 91 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Christian Ponder – Ponder proved the Vikings aren’t horrible with a decent QB. Far less boring too! The rookie rifle passed for 219 yards, including two touchdowns and two interceptions. Loving his matchup against a soft and vulnerable Panthers pass defense this week. Available in 89 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Roy Helu – Another heluva pick here. Or not. Good luck picking the right nut in the Shanahan shell game. Feeling lucky? Try Helu. Available in 82 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Knowshon Moreno – Subbing for his former backup-turned-starter, Moreno could benefit from the run-heavy-cause-Tebow-can’t-pass Denver offense. And while Moreno is ho hum as a typical running back, he’s a good receiving back who could compliment Tebow’s irregular play nicely. Available in 50 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Montario Hardesty – The Little Engine That Could finally amassed over 100 yards. Not a spectacular effort – 2.7 yard per carry – but hard to overlook 122 total yards. Peyton Hillis could return week 8, so Hardesty is likely a flex play. But that’s a promotion from where he’s been most of the season – the bench. Available in 64 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Alfonso Smith – Filling in for the bruised Beanie Wells, Smith garnered only 17 yards on the day, although he did find the end zone. Served as the lone runner for Arizona after Wells exited, which tips the hand his way for week 8. Unfriendly matchup this week vs. Baltimore, but if Beanie’s sensitivity to pain lingers, Smith owners can enjoy a yummy Rams defense week 9. Available in 98 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Tim Tebow – I know. Crazy exciting. But get a hold of yourself. Lions are tough against the pass. Better options out there.

Can’t get enough of Erin Skelley? Join her every Friday and Sunday morning on SportsRadio 610 or follow her on Twitter.

Week 7 Fantasy Picks

So I sweated out a couple of victories this weekend. As fun as it seemed, I contained my inner Jim Harbaugh. Come on, Jim. If anyone should go completely bonkers over a victory, it is team Lil Bow Wow. I’m now 6-0. And my competition is tough. No silly little NFC West. And try beating the Lions without your starting quarterback, wide receiver or your defense.

While I write – and obsess – about the game of make-believe football, the stuff on the actual field has its drama and lure. Yeah, even with no stake in the game. From the Harbaugh-Schwartz scuffle to unnecessary roughness against Sean Payton to Romo’s meltdown. Again. I don’t get it either, Dez. And how about VY? Good grief! You’re the relief pitcher with the 81.00 ERA. Two pitches and yank.

Every now and then, you should step away from the stat tracker and enjoy the game. Of course, make sure your lineup is set. And with that, check out these waiver finds:

DeMarco Murray – Felix Jones’ high ankle sprain is just as annoying as his production this season. Murray is the new guy in Dallas. Not particulary impressive against New England with 39 total yards, but he is expected to serve as lead back, splitting time with Tashard Choice. Murray and the Cowboys have a favorable matchup, facing the sad Rams on Sunday. Available in 84 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Montario Hardesty – It wasn’t pretty but Hardesty got his chances on Sunday, subbing for the hammy-stricken Peyton Hillis. With 11 carries for 35 measly yards, Hardesty added 18 receiving yards. Still, not impressive. And I haven’t even mentioned his dropped passes. With Hillis questionable for Sunday, he’s a decent option for owners with injury-plagued RBs or bye week choices to make… or those who just wanna roll the dice and see what happens with this guy. Available in 81 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Jake Ballard – Now I know why Victor Cruz was hiding. Manningham found the Bobby Brady bad luck tiki, nullifying multiple touchdown opportunities. Meanwhile, Ballard reaped five catches for 81 yards. Week 7 is a bye, but I like the Miami matchup week 8. Available in 89 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Fred Davis – After vying with Chris Cooley for the ball, a broken finger gives Davis the starting job for the next few weeks. With all ten digits, Davis grabbed six passes for 95 yards. Nervous about Rex? Me too. Remember, there’s less risk with tight end. Even I can throw a ball 10 yards. Available in 53 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Demaryius Thomas – Brandon Lloyd’s exit provides great opportunity for the Georgia Tech product. Still a few question marks here: How much will Tebow throw? Will Decker be the favorite? Will Tebow stink? Consider Thomas a viable No. 3/flex play. Available in 98 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Can’t get enough of Erin Skelley? Tune in every Friday and Sunday morning for Erin’s fantasy news and notes. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 6 Fantasy Picks: Tebow Rises

There are three things you never discuss at parties….or in sports: politics, religion and Tim Tebow. I’m here to break some rules, my friend. Join me, as I wanna talk some Tebow.

The gifted child has little appeal to me. Watching him enter the Broncos-Chargers game like Braveheart was painful. He looked hyperactive and unnatural, and yet that’s also his charm. To some.

But this is fantasy, and persona doesn’t matter. You can’t ignore his miracle string of performances to end the 2010 season. In three games, he totaled 651 yards in the air and 225 on the ground, along with seven TDs. Those are good stats, especially if he’s mortal.

If that’s not enough, even the cynical have to consider week 7, when Tebow returns to Florida where he became a legend. Miami pass defense stinks too. With the quarterback position stacked this year, I don’t consider him a “must grab.” But if you have Ben or Tony, heck yeah, covert to Team Tebow.

Here are a few other guys to consider. While less Tebow-ish, they still can help you.

Delone Carter – Another injury, another waiver wonder. Carter filled in for the hamstrung Joseph Addai with 22 yards on 12 carries and a touchdown. He also added 12 receiving yards. He wasn’t great, but it is the bye weeks. And for that reason, you lower your expectations. Available in 86 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Jackie Battle – Forget Jones and McCluster, Battle toted the lion’s share of the carries against the Colts with 19 for 119 yards. Haley’s latest surprise is expected to remain in the running back mix (unless Haley reads more fan mail). In week 7, he faces Oakland, who gives up the third most fantasy points to running backs. Available in 86 percent of Yahoo leagues. Seriously, Haley, a fan’s advice?

Victor Cruz – I understand why you’re reluctant. His success is dependant on Eli Manning. But rest assured, Eli is solid lately. Wideouts can make QBs better. Cruz is coming off another masterful performance with eight catches for 161 yards. He needs to settle those hands down, as he’s prone to fumbling, but otherwise, he’s a great addition. Faces Buffalo this week, who is vulnerable against the pass. And he’s still available in 39 percent of Yahoo leagues. Still.

Darrius Heyward-Bey – Say hey to the Oakland wideout who reeled in 7 catches for 99 yards vs. Houston on Sunday. As a general rule of thumb, you may tend to avoid Raiders players who aren’t Darren McFadden, but Jason Campbell is actually a decent feeder this year. The Cleveland matchup week 6 is scary, but again, it’s the bye weeks.

Pierre Garcon – Kurt Cobain seems to have a preference for the French waiter, targeting him eight times with five catches for 125 yards. While Garcon is largely taken (available in only 23 percent of Yahoo leagues), he’s probably on your bench. Forgotten what a Colt in the lineup looks like?

Stevan Ridley – Alrighty, my bad. It was widely reported that Ridley would be the favorite. It’s your fault for starting a Belichick RB. You knew the risk.

Join Erin Skelley every Friday and Sunday morning with fantasy news and tips. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 5 Fantasy Picks: Hello Bye Weeks

Apparently we have bye weeks again this year. Who knew this was still in the league bylaws. Without revealing all my flaws, let’s just say week 6 presents a little challenge for me. Truth be told, I enjoy this time of year. Not week 6, in particular. No, especially not week 6; it’s a doozie. But I like digging deep for a nameless scrub week to week and finding ways to squeak a win.

Over the last week, I’ve received a few texts, tweets and e-mails from the doomed and the desperate. Really desperate. Think Indianapolis Colts. So what’s a poor fool to do? I’ve got an idea but it requires some planning and some empty bench space.
  
Game the System
    
You have to be smarter, starting now. Your best bet, and my favorite strategy, is thinking ahead. Sounds obvious, but what I mean is thinking about your lineup and your waiver moves when you’re not competing for the same picks as the rest of your league. Don’t wait until week 8 to pick your week 8 defense. Get them on their bye or against a strong opponent, when no one else wants them. Sneaky, sneaky, I know. Someone give me an Eric Foster fist pump for that.

And if you think that’s smart, check out these super smart pickups:

Smart Pickups
         
Stevan Ridley – Running back roulette is back. And Belichick is the dealer. Ridley is the new back in New England, and put all your money on him. For now. Until Belichick changes his mind. The rookie RB ran for 97 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. For BenJarvus Green-Ellis owners, I recommend stashing him on your bench. Be ready to dust him off when Belichick is bored with Ridley. Available in 85 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Jacoby Jones – The fantasy community was dealt another blow this weekend with Andre Johnson crumbling down. The most obvious choice in Houston is probably the best one. Jones knows the playbook and loves running to the end zone for his mama (almost, but not exactly, his quote). His stats aren’t good enough to include, but he’s the next man up in a formidable offense. This weekend, Jones faces the silver and black. Raiders fans scare me more than their defense. Available in 75 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Ryan Torain – As if Belichick’s fickleness wasn’t enough, say hello to Mike Shanahan. Hightower owners are reeling. Two lousy points. Torain, meanwhile, ran for 135 yards on nine carries. My take, claim Torain at your own risk. He’s likely the starter in week 6 (remember, think ahead), so if you’re on a bye, he’s the smartest play of the Redskins potpourri of backs. But don’t count on this love to last. Available in 76 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Isaac Redman – Mendenhall’s hammy is hurting, and Mewelde Moore is also down. Enter Redman. (Isn’t that a song?) In limited action, the third-year back has 107 yards and one score. No one saw this coming, so he’s largely available (88 percent).

Preston Parker – The Tampa wideout could be a nice filler during the byes. Shined on Monday Night Football with 70 yards and a TD. Faces a generous San Fransisco pass defense this week. Available in 94 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Other Notes
     
Chris Johnson – For crying out loud, it’s about time. I was SO close to dumping him at the nearest fire station or hospital and surrendering my rights to the state. But 101 yards on 23 carries will allow Johnson to remain a part of the Skelley fantasy family. It’s a shame Kenny Britt’s injury is to thank for CJ’s increase in production. Love the Steelers matchup this week if Foster’s performance is any indicator. Tennessee defense should dominate, placing the pigskin in the money mogul’s hands.

Matt Schaub – If you have the Texans QB, yeah, it’s a bear market. But he’s a steady producer (except for last week). I still put him in my top 12 this week. Come on, he plays the Raiders.

Tony Romo – I hate to say this, but the city of Dallas was right. In reality or fantasy, you’re rolling the dice with Romo.

Can’t get enough of Erin Skelley? Want more, more, more? Listen to her on SportsRadio 610 on Friday and Sunday mornings. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 4 Fantasy Picks

The third week solidified some suspicions. Fred Jackson is a premier back. Chris Johnson and DeAngelo Williams were better off broke. And child please, Ochocino is done.

It also affirms Michael Vick’s fearless play has its consequences. A little hamstring concern should be wrapped in a giant red flag. And the bearded Buffalo gunslinger is for real.

So many answers. But still so many questions! As you scour the waiver wire and set your lineups this week, here are a few guys I’m digging….

I Told You So
 
Denarius Moore – Last week, I told you to claim him. 57 yards, 1 TD. This week’s matchup is sneaky good. New England is awful against the pass. Still available in 53 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Scott Chandler – Him too. And he scored. Again. That’s four TDs in three weeks. Available in 43 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Daniel Thomas – And him too. 95 rushing yards, 27 receiving yards, 1 TD. Projected lead back in Miami over the pizza guy. Available in 32 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Smart Pickups (please heed my advice this time)

Nate Washington – The season-ending knee injury to Kenny Britt brings opportunity to Washington, who had eight receptions for 92 yards. The new No. 1 wideout fills your No. 2 slot. Start him with confidence. Especially with Hasselbeck behind center. Available in 62 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Torrey Smith – Who knew Baltimore passed the ball? Three touchdowns is noteworthy, but keep in mind Lee Evans didn’t play. Smith is a good pickup, but only play him if Evans sits. Available in 81 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Bernard Scott – Grab the Cincy backup and prepare to start him during Cedric Benson’s little staycation. Prepare for Scott to run a lot. I like him as a No. 2 option. Available in 86 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Victor Cruuuuuuuuuz – I couldn’t help myself. Astros fans know why. OK, I have no idea who this guy is. Maybe a superhero who landed in NY just to help Eli Manning’s wishes come true. With his special powers, he caught three passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Cruz is a viable option this weekend in Arizona; a good flex or WR3 option. Available in 88 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Can’t get enough of Erin Skelley? Listen to her every Friday and Sunday morning on SportsRadio 610. Follow her on Twitter.

Week 3 Fantasy Picks

The Bills and Lions are both 2-0. That should say it all. It’s hard to make predictions – or at least accurate ones – when the league’s talent is topsy-turvy. I will continue to remind you that my Bills pre-season expectations were on target, and I’ll conveniently ignore that I thought Ochocinco would be fantasy relevant. In my defense, anyone plucking receptions from Tom Brady should be ownable. I was wrong.

Here are this week’s smart picks and plays…

Smart Pickups
  
Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones – Let’s start with the obvious – Jamaal Charles’ backups. While both have increased value and worth claiming, McCluster offers a bonus – wide receiver eligibility. He’s a PPR dream. Remember, they’ll share the load, but that’s becoming the norm. They’re available in 53 and 52 percent of Yahoo leagues respectively.

Daniel Thomas – We saw this coming. Reggie Bush is not an every-down back. Thomas ruffled the Texans for 107 yards, and is projected to take the starting job. Available in 37 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Eric Decker – I realize it’s only week 2. Still, in two weeks, Decker is outplaying his peers who have also played two weeks. While his output probably will not sustain at this level, he has shown potential. And he’s a good pickup to hold on your bench. Have him ready if Brandon Lloyd sits this week. Available in 44 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Scott Chandler –Three TDs in two weeks from this tight end. Wait, what’s that I hear? Who is he? He plays for the 2-0 Bills. Available in 58 percent of Yahoo leagues. If he’s not available, grab whatever Bills you see.

Denarius Moore – Raiders are ailing at WR. Check out this speedy weapon who caught five catches for 146 yards. Available in 58 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Smart Plays

A.J. Green – The San Francisco matchup this week makes Green a must-start. In two weeks, Green has 165 yards and two TDs, and now he faces a Candyland pass defense that’s surrendering the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Let it fly, Dalton!

Fred Jackson – Another Bill. Another surprise. The league’s rushing leader faces a Patriots defense that yields the tenth most fantasy points to running backs.

Chris Johnson – Seriously, Chris, the Titans signed you for this garbage? You play Denver this week. I know Javon will get more touches, but if you can’t shine in this game…

Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy football knowledge. You can hear her on Fridays and Sundays. Follow her on twitter.

Week 2 Fantasy Picks

As a fantasy analyst (ooh, analyst sounds smart), part of my job is to boast about how right I am. It’s so annoying, I know that. I listen to sportswriters and other fantasy media, and I roll my eyes with every “I told you so.” But I want to earn your trust and respect. Therefore, I must resort to this dreadful tactic. So here it goes. I told you to start your Bills. And I was right. Who listened to me? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

OK, I’m done bragging. Here are this week’s smart picks and plays…

Smart Pickups

Robert Meachem – Last week, the Saints wideout gave a solid performance with five catches for 70 yards and a TD. Colston’s injury provides even more opportunity to Meachem and his owners. Add to that the scrumptious matchup of the Bears’ silly pass defense, and Meachem is a must-start. Still available in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Cadillac Williams – Steven Jackson leaving the game early shouldn’t be much of a surprise as he did sit much of the pre-season. But Cadillac’s ability to run…for 140 yards? That’s surprising. And against the dreamy Eagles too. Get him and start him. Available in 77 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Dustin Keller – Check out the wire for Keller. Solid debut with five catches for 61 yards. Looks to be an important part of the Jets offense. Available in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Jacoby Jones – Jones will fill in for the injured Kevin Walter. Should enjoy a weak passing game the way Brady’s artillery did. Available in 77 percent of Yahoo leagues.


Smart Plays

Tim Hightower – Mustered 72 yards and a TD against the Giants. Playing former team Arizona this week. Not so much counting on a “stick it to ‘em” attitude, but rather their run defense is terrible.

Dez Bryant – So talented. So unpredictable. Predictably, a Dallas Cowboy. I love his matchup against San Fran this week.

Cam Newton – It was the Cardinals. Green Bay should be a tougher matchup. Deep leagues and two-QB formats only.

Peyton Hillis – I know he was mostly overlooked last Sunday, but the Browns will run more this week. Wouldn’t you if you played the Colts?

Mario Manningham – If Nicks doesn’t play, he becomes a must-start. Otherwise, still a really good No. 2 play.

Owen Daniels – While not utilized to his potential last week, the Texans play Miami this Sunday. Did you see the Patriots tight ends Monday night?

Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy football knowledge. Hear her on Fridays and Sundays. Follow her on twitter.

10 Questions for Week 1

The countdown to draft day and opening week is always full of mayhem and drama. I prepare for my own drafts (and my blog). And then of course, I’m the good pal who plans my friends’ drafts too. I get silly little texts like: “I’m in a snake draft, whatever that means.” And no, that wasn’t from my mom. But only because she can’t text.

As you gear up for week 1, here are a few key questions:

Can inferior drafters find redemption? So you have David Garrard at the helm and you drafted the wrong Mike Williams, no problem. Just because you stunk up the draft doesn’t mean you’re out of it. With thoughtful, diligent waiver watching, you can revive your team.

Which rookie wide receiver should I own? Antonio Brown is my favorite. The rookie wideout is no longer a secret after an outstanding camp. Currently slotted as the Steelers’ No. 3 WR, Brown has the potential to become the No. 2 with Ward going gray. If he isn’t already taken, go get him.

Which rookie running back will shine? Front runner Mark Ingram, who has the early nod, will get his share of carries in New Orleans. He looks good, but really good compared to Miami’s Daniel Thomas who is struggling. Does this mean Reggie Bush is an every-down back? Don’t get carried away.

Why am I loving St. Louis? Sam Bradford. Breakout year for Sam.

And Buffalo? Really? Yes, really. I’m loving Buffalo. I can’t believe I just wrote that. The normally ho-hum team has fantasy potential. At RB, Fred Jackson may be uninteresting, but he’ll get 15-20 carries a game. While he’ll split carries with Spiller, Freddie should have the advantage… at least for the first six weeks. And you can expect another 1,000 yards from Steve Johnson. High marks for the guy throwing the ball too.

Why are you vomiting? That’s because you drafted both Arian Foster AND Peyton Manning. I pity you. By now, you have a QB replacement other than Kerry Collins, I hope. If not, take a look at Orton and Sanchez, who are available in 30 percent of Yahoo leagues. At RB, you can find relief with McGahee, Tate and Spiller. Again, my apologies.

Will Peyton Hillis repeat? He looked good at camp, I keep telling myself. But I also have his injury history filed away. He’s older and more brittle. He’s a good No. 2 back, but he won’t earn a Madden cover this year. I’m watching Montario Hardesty, given Peyton’s Humpty-Dumpty-ness and Brandon Jackson’s turf toe.

Will Wade Phillips make a difference? If you followed the Texans camp, you know the answer appears to be yes. But does that make Houston fantasy-worthy? There are still 12 teams I like better, so no. At least, not now. But keep your eye on them during the bye weeks. They play Tennessee and Oakland, so if you’re defense is on a vacation, they could be a nice plug-n-play.

Are you doomed? – If Peterson goes scoreless or Brady throws three picks, remind yourself it’s only week one. Settle down. Resist the urge to dump your team or throw your iPhone.

How do you get more random bits of fantasy wisdom? Follow me on Twitter.

Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season. Listen to her on Fridays and Sundays.

What To Do With Arian

I love Arian Foster. But he doesn’t love me. I’m one of those fantasy types who live vicariously through professional football players. Or rather through the stats of professional football players.

And I see why that’s annoying. I annoy myself with my mental stat tracker. Arian’s dismissal of my meaningless little hobby-turned-obsession is understanding. And the fact that Arian doesn’t share the same sense of enthusiasm for Team Lil Bow Wow is also noted.

For the record, I never root for an injury. Not even turf toe. I just root for slippery fingers and wildly errant throws into the arms of a defender for a touchdown. Come on, Arian, that’s 8 points.

Hamstrung With Questions?

If you have Arian, don’t panic. No need to trade him. But do make sure you have a deep bench at running back. This way, you take advantage of his enormous potential, but you have a safety net if his hammy gets a little strung out. Of course, Ben Tate is a perfect backup option.

Still nervous? Look, there is no perfect running back. Ray Rice can play every game, but Ricky Williams will steal some scores. Jamaal Charles has the same handcuff in Thomas Jones. And Cedric Benson has a completely different kind of handcuff.

My point is, it’s OK to take a little chance on someone with Foster’s talent. Just make sure you’re prepared. Same goes for other positions. If you draft Michael Vick, you better have a backup like Bradford or Flacco. Vick has such an aggressive style, that he poses more of an injury risk.

If you haven’t drafted yet, Foster remains a viable No. 2 draft pick. This doesn’t lower him on my list. I had him second, behind Peterson anyway. Again, just hedge your pick and get Tate or his likeness.

In the meantime, go tweet Arian some love.

Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.

The Fantasy Impact of Kerry Collins

Poor Reggie Wayne. And Dallas Clark. Austin and Pierre too. These orphaned receivers just learned the identity of their new provider. And it’s not comforting.

Kerry Collins. Kerry… Freaking… Collins.

The 38-year old ex-retiree is putting the chin strap back on for Indy. Colts loyalists must be devastated. How good can Collins possibly be? What does this mean for Peyton? Will Jags fans start laughing at them? It could happen.

OK, OK, everyone settle down. Let’s focus on what matters. The real losers are the fantasy owners who are baffled by the impact on some key players.

Let’s break it down:

Peyton Manning – This is a giant question mark. Is Collins merely a safety net? Hardly. Colts owner Jim Irsay hinted there were more substantial problems via Twitter.

My wild guess: Peyton is out a minimum of two games. Maybe four. Just don’t know. Fantasy owners, beware. I wouldn’t pass on Phillip Rivers orMatt Schaub for a risk like Manning. I would take him no earlier than the seventh round. And even then I would close my eyes as I hit “select.”

Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon – I would add 10 spots to their current rankings. Think Austin or Pierre would be known or relevant on a mediocre team? Quick! Name two Browns receivers!

Dallas Clark – His value maintains – early fourth round. Risky QBs love tight ends.

Joseph Addai – Currently going in rounds 5-6, his value remains the same. Sure, they’ll run more, but they also won’t have as many scoring opportunities. A balanced offense benefits everyone.

Kerry Collins – Um no. There are 12 guys I like better.

Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.

Fantasy Preview: Bargain Players

I’m no expert. But men and women are more alike than we think. We both love value, only we find it in different places. Women boast about the bargain bin jeans that cost 10 bucks. Men brag about nabbing Peyton Hillis off the waiver wire. “Dude, he was undrafted.” I heard that a dozen times last year. It’s the same thing. Or maybe not. A fantasy pick never made me feel fat.

Still, you get my point. We all want value. And more importantly, we want credit for it. All that work better make us look smarter than our friends. Here are a few thrifty picks that mimic the expensive stuff:

Danny Amendola – Hmmm. Did you see what I saw? Looks like Danny could be a playground favorite for Sam Bradford this year. 70 yards on eight passes in limited play. I know the Rams are stacked with receiving options, but Josh McDaniels’ arrival means a stronger air attack this year. I like Amendola in the double digit rounds and slot him in the 3WR.

Felix Jones – Finally, Jones is getting his chance. No doubt he had the talent, just needed his turn (ahem, Marion Barber). Making Papa Jerry proud so far this camp. Going in round 6. A steal!

Jimmy Graham – Shoppers: tight ends are like paper towels. Unless you get the really expensive Brawny or Bounty brands, the rest are a lot alike. Perhaps a ridiculous over-simplification, but I think it works. Save your early picks for RBs and WRs and get a tight end late. With Shockey out in New Orleans, Graham has the potential to take his place. Runner up: Detroit’s Brandon Pettigrew.

Tim Hightower – Once again, Hightower is making the most of an opportunity. With Ryan Torain nursing a broken hand, Hightower is impressing Mike Shanahan. He’s running, he’s blocking, he’s doing all the right things. Hightower could be the starter, and he’s currently going in the 10th round. Yes, the 10th round!

Mike Tolbert – See Ryan Mathews. Norv Turner has admitted he’ll use the tandem bike this year. Mathews will likely land the starting job, but Tolbert will still see considerable time. Look how effective he was last year: 735 rushing yards and 11 TDs. Also, Mathews is a health risk, so I like Mikey.

Shonn Greene – How else will the Jets get the ball down field?

Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.

Fantasy Preview: Players to Avoid

It’s nothing personal, but I don’t like ‘em. Not as fantasy picks anyway. Sure, if they drop really far in the draft, cool, I’ll gladly take them and pretend this article never existed. But I caution you against taking them at the current asking price. Don’t be a sucker. Let someone else make the mistake.

Maurice Jones-Drew – It pains me to put this little cutie pie in the corner. He’s MJD and everyone loves him. And his playful desire to appease fantasy owners is a bonus. But I’m worried about his knee. Not because of a prolonged leave of absence, or the risk of re-injury. I’m worried that he won’t be able to cut and change speeds quickly, and burn his defenders like he does every year. And I’m worried he’ll disappoint and play like a No. 25 draft choice vs. a No. 5. And let’s not forget Rashad Jennings could siphon some playing time. Sorry, MJD. No hard feelings, right?

Brandon Lloyd – The No. 1 wide receiver of 2010 will not repeat. Mark my words. Lloyd’s 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns were impressive, but also an abnormality in the fantasy universe. For starters, look at his history: mediocre. Look at the changes in play calling: Josh McDaniels vs. John Fox. And lastly, look at how he earned his catches: repeatedly winning jump balls over his defenders. The chance that lightning strikes twice? Zero. The chance that I’ll use an overused cliché? Most definite.

Ryan Mathews – This one may not surprise you. The most coveted rookie of 2010 disappointed last year, skipping much of the season with injuries. He watched as Mike Tolbert blossomed with nearly 1,000 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns. When Mathews did play, he produced mixed reviews: 678 yards and 7 scores: good. Five fumbles: bad. Everyone knew the two backs were expected to share carries this year. How did Mathews respond to the inevitable competition? He arrived at training camp out of shape, failing the physical. Nice job, Ryan. I will not draft you.

LeSean McCoy – This one will surprise you. He’s a premier back on a premier team. McCoy rushed for 1,080 yards, with a ton of receptions (78 ), which is yummy in PPR leagues. But in every league, scoring is paramount. And McCoy just didn’t get enough chances at the goal, mustering only seven rushing TDs. The reason: Michael Vick, who can run and score just as easily. And if that’s not enough, the Eagles signed bulldozer Ronnie Brown. Gulp.

Reggie Wayne – He’s neither injured or unfit. Perhaps a little overrated. But the real reason Wayne’s on this list: he’s old and worn down. Take his decline in production in the final weeks last season, and his six measly touchdowns as proof. Plus, he has young pups now competing for the ball. Manning doesn’t have favorites anymore. And perhaps the best reason: his training camp interviews. He comments on how young and fresh he feels. Young people don’t do that. If he’s your No. 1 receiver, I hope you’re No. 2 makes up for it.

Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.

Fantasy Preview: Top 10 Picks

I waiver. Experience and consistency or youth and upside. I want to pick Arian, but I’m recommending Adrian. Only because it’s safer. I don’t mind gambling a little in the later rounds, but not the first round and certainly not the first pick. For No. 1, safety first. But don’t worry. Your argument is valid if you choose Team Foster instead. Both Adrian and Arian can propel your team to do great things. Here are my top 10:

1. Adrian Peterson – Not just All Day and every day, but every year. Peterson’s the only back who has finished in the top five in points for four consecutive seasons. With 1,298 rushing yards, 12 scores and improved ball control, Peterson is poised to do even more this season. Donovan McNabb brings experience and control to the Vikings offense. Expect them to pound the ball all day via All Day.

2. Arian Foster – Thank you, Arian. I nabbed you in the 11th round in an experts’ league last season. We drafted in August well before anyone knew your name. I felt so smart when you earned the starting role. Even smarter when you became a fantasy dream: most rushing yards (1,616), most TDs (16 rushing, 2 receiving), plus 606 receiving yards. Too bad you don’t earn points for personality too. If the Texans can take a lead into the fourth quarter this year, just imagine all the additional garbage yards.

3. Jamaal Charles – I’ve been a member of his fan club for years. Handcuffed by Todd Haley’s infatuation with old and slow running backs, Charles still amazed the league with his 1,467 rushing yards and a sparkling 6.4 yards-per-carry. But Thomas Jones poached his scores, leaving him with only eight. My take this year: not even Haley can hold back the league’s most explosive running back.

4. Ray Rice – I can hear Ray Rice: Goodbye McGahee, hello Leach! Wait, what? We just got Ricky Williams? Nooooooo. Rice had a lousy September last year, but after week 5, he plowed for 1,236 yards. If I do the math right, Rice – McGahee + Leach + Williams = equals a premier fantasy back.

5. Chris Johnson – Johnson has shown consistency and a very high level of awesome-ness, amassing 4,598 yards in just three years. Can Johnson return to C2K? My biggest concern is his lack of help around him. Handing it off to Johnson on downs 1-4 will work for only so long. I know, I know. He’s Chris Johnson! And that’s why he’s in my top 5. But defenses know this too. They read my blog.

6. Andre Johnson – While projected to be the NFL’s top receiver in 2010, his numbers disappointed, and a handful of guys finished ahead of him. But look closely, and it’s because he missed three games. Johnson averaged 93.5 yards per game to top all NFL wide receivers. He’s amazing. And I love him. And no, my closet full of 80 jerseys is not influencing my advice.

7. Rashard Mendenhall – The tweeting RB is expected to get a ton of touches this year. While there are other backs with better mechanics, he ranks this high because he’s a Steeler, and all the scoring opportunities. Lots of goal line carries expected this year.

8. Michael Turner – I’m worried about his health and just how long he can last, but despite wearing down last year, Turner still finished third in rushing yards. He’s a total workhorse and as long as he’s in the game, you want him.

9. Aaron Rodgers – Yes, Rodgers over Vick. He’s the total package – arm and legs, with 3,922 passing yards combined with 322 yards rushing. Draft him and enjoy. I just worry (for my own sake) that he’s not the sneaky pickup he used to be.

10. Michael Vick – Finished 2010 with a career best 2,018 yards and 21 passing TDs (plus nine rushing). And while he’s a better rusher than Rodgers, he also has more risk. His physical play makes me nervous. Also defenses have learned his game – just look at his declining numbers over the 2010 season.

Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy football knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.

Fantasy Preview: Surveying the Experts

The offseason can be lonely. Especially when your team misses the playoffs. Again. Add to that the uncertainly of the 2011 season, and nothing but women’s soccer to comfort you. I too was sad and anxious, but it’s time to pull yourself together. Fantasy football is back.

But there’s one problem. Offseason studying was uninspiring. And now you’re paying the price. Like a linebacker entering training camp with 20 extra pounds. Fortunately, I made a few phone calls to an assortment of fantasy experts and sports biz friends to help. Why I’m rarely wrong (a fat lie), why not get a little help from my friends.

This esteemed group of gurus includes Brad Evans, Yahoo! Sports writer/personality, Chris Liss, managing editor of Rotowire.com, Ray Flowers, host of The Fantasy Drive –XM 87, Sirius 210, Jason Friedman, Rockets.com beat writer and obsessed fantasy guy, and J.J. Moses, retired Houston Texans player.

Who do you like at No. 1? Adrian or Arian?

Liss: Adrian Peterson. Because he does it every year and I think the team will lean on him even more heavily this season.

Moses: Arian Foster. Oh by the way, did I forget to say, he’s the NFL’s leading rusher?

Skelley: I hate picking first. I feel doomed. There are lots of stars, but the No. 1 guy has to be special. He is someone who demonstrates consistency and has special powers to thwart injuries. Both Peterson and Foster could fit that bill. But Peterson has done it longer. It’s a safer pick.

Evans: Arian. Vonta Leach’s departure to Baltimore smarts a little, but with a superb line, great passing offense, defined “bell cow” role and versatile skill set, Foster is the indisputable No. 1 pick. Peterson is still a top-five back, but question marks surrounding McNabb, especially minus Sidney Rice, and the offensive line are hard to ignore.

Friedman: Is "no one" a legitimate answer? Seriously, somebody please show me a player who so clearly separates himself from the pack that he should be deemed worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. Michael Vick clearly possesses the potential to be that guy, but do you really feel comfortable taking a quarterback who's a significant injury risk at that spot, knowing you won't be able to address any of the other positions until after approximately 20 other players have been removed from the board? Keep in mind that question comes courtesy of someone who was fortunate enough to thoroughly enjoy the Michael Vick experience from a fantasy perspective last year. Not sure I'd have the intestinal fortitude necessary to take him with the top pick, though. More likely I'd play it safe and (reluctantly) grab Adrian Peterson. All of which is my typically long-winded way of saying I'd walk away with an exceedingly uneasy feeling no matter whom I selected No. 1 overall this year.

Flowers: You can make an argument for multiple players to be first off the board in fantasy football. Michael Vick passed like he was Ben Roethlisberger and ran like he was Ryan Mathews last season. Jamaal Charles had a historic 6.4 yards per carry mark and owns a 6.0 mark for his career. Chris Johnson is one year removed from going for over two grand, and last year ran for 1,364 yards and 11 scores while catching 44 passes. Adrian Peterson is coming off his least productive rushing season though he still ran for 1,298 yards and scored 12 times on the ground. Despite all of those accolades, the No. 1 player off the board this season in fantasy football drafts should be Arian Foster. The Texans' runner led the NFL with 1,616 yards rushing and 16 rushing scores. He was also second at the position with 66 receptions while his total of 604 yards receiving paced all backs (he also scored twice through the air). Foster also racked up eight 100-yard rushing games and had seven games in which he did at least two end zone boogies. It's Foster or bust in 2011.

Who are the big free agency winners?

Liss: Chad Ochocinco. Playing with a top-five, all-time quarterback (Tom Brady) on a team without a No. 1 wide receiver is a huge upgrade. I've moved him up to No. 22 on the WR board.

Skelley: Larry Fitzgerald should reap the rewards with Kevin Kolb now feeding him. If you picked Fitzgerald in the first round last year, you probably defended it, but you really weren’t happy with six wimpy scores. Expect vintage Fitz this year: 1,200 yards, 10-plus touchdowns.

Evans: Completely agree on Ocho and Fitz. Both should rebound nicely. But Mike-Sims Walker is also a big winner. If he exudes the work ethic and stamina he once did with the Jags two years ago, he’s capable of emerging a top-flight WR2/3 within Josh McDaniels’ pass-happy offense. Sam Bradford is dreamy.

Flowers: Mike Sims-Walker goes to the Rams, and while that doesn't sound like much, it's something. The Rams have a gaggle of wide receivers who are injury prone, inexperienced and/or small, so MSW certainly has a chance to make some waves. A year removed from a 63-catch, 869-yard effort, MSW has scored 14 times the past two years, three more times than Wes Welker and only one fewer than DeSean Jackson. MSW isn't going to be an All-Pro, but working with an ever improving Sam Bradford he could best the numbers that he posted in 2009.

Friedman: Texans fans aren't going to like hearing this, but surely the Ravens' Ray Rice did a happy dance the second he heard Vonta Leach will now be bulldozing paths for Rice to run through this season. I also have to believe the Eagles defense will be highly rated after the embarrassment of riches their free agent haul provided, but NO defense should be selected before the latter rounds, so take that with a pretty significant serving of salt.

Moses: Darren Sproles being traded to the Saints will have an impact in helping with the void that Reggie Bush will leave. I have to support family, a Waterloo native, and guys who are 5'6.

Anyone you’re avoiding in the draft?

Friedman: I wouldn't say I'm "avoiding" anyone per se; to me it's simply all about value. Would I feel good about taking an overworked, increasingly-injured Steven Jackson in the top-15? Not really. But should he somehow slip another 10 spots, he'd suddenly start to look like a pick that would make you feel pretty darn good about yourself.

Skelley: My no-Steven Jackson policy remains in effect. Also, despite an incredible 2010 campaign, Peyton Hillis won’t repeat.

Liss: Whoever Brad Evans likes.

Evans: For the record, while Liss was contemplating life “lifting” his Shake Weight last August, yours truly was singing the praises of Arian Foster and Right Coast Mike Williams. Sometimes a blind squirrel does indeed find a nut. Also, Maurice Jones-Drew has the plague as far as I’m concerned. Coming off knee surgery and with Rashad Jennings expected to shoulder an increased load, the Oompah-Loompah is not the elite RB1 people are drafting him as.

Who are your sleeper picks?

Flowers: Mike Tolbert is being drafted about five rounds later than Ryan Mathews despite the fact that Tolbert scored four more touchdowns and ran for 57 more yards than the younger Mathews last season. With Mathews coming off an injury-filled campaign (plus the fact that he is already dealing with injuries in camp), and the fact that Darren Sproles is no longer with the club to take away looks on third down means that Tolbert could once again be a vital part of the Chargers offense.

Friedman: Most, if not all, of these probably qualify more as the deep sleeper variety: QB: Tim Tebow, RB: Ben Tate, WR: Emmanuel Sanders, TE: Jared Cook.

Liss: I like Earl Bennett to catch 80-plus balls as Jay Cutler's go-to guy. I also like Percy Harvin (should have a bigger role this year).

Evans: In PPR formats, Danny Amendola is pure gold. He could be the NFC’s answer to Wes Welker. Standard formats, how about Delone Carter? Joe Addai is the proven vet, yes, but he’s very injury prone. The rookie from Syracuse is a between-the-tackles grinder who should, at a minimum, be the goal-line back. It’s very possible he supersedes Addai entirely at some point.

Skelley: Breakout year for Josh Freeman.

Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy football knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.

Opening week fantasy pickups

Brandon Lyon ruined my Opening Day. The Houston Astros had a chance to sneak a victory by the stacked Philadelphia Phillies. But Lyon foiled that plan, surrendering three ninth-inning runs in just 1/3 of an inning. If you’re doing the math, that’s an 81.00 ERA.

For the record, I don’t have Lyon on my fantasy team, just my hometown team. Which also hurts. But it’s a long season, and it’s too soon to label anyone a dud. Even Lyon, who will get a lot of chances in the closer role.

Don't panic if your team is full of poor performers. A handful of games is hardly a good measure. But it’s not too soon to test the waiver wire and make some minor adjustments.

In no particular order, here are the candidates: (Please hold your applause until the end.)

Kyle Drabek – The son of Doug Drabek is one of the most hyped pickups, largely because of his near no-no last week. Boasts a 1.29 ERA with seven strikeouts. Available in 39 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Ben Francisco – With a 6-for-13 performance to open the season, the Phillies outfielder looks like a respectable replacement for Jayson Werth. With an abundance of good outfielders, Francisco remains a good option for deep and NL-only leagues. The real question here: Can he grow a crazy goatee like Werth? Available in 78 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Jordan Walden – The new Angels closer pitched a perfect ninth on Tuesday. Walden is scoreless in 3.1 innings with six strikeouts so far this season. Tough to say if this new role will stick with Fernando Rodney vying to win his job back. Available in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Willie Bloomquist – Need stolen bases? Check out the Diamondbacks’ Bloomquist who has four swipes already. His line looks good too: batting .333, one home run and three RBI. Has position versatility, so even when Stephen Drew returns, manager Kirk Gibson could slot him elsewhere. A good deep or NL-only pickup. Available in 84 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Logan Morrison – Probably a little early to claim him, but his two home runs got my attention. Batting .286 with four RBI for the Marlins. Hopefully more than a fluke as he belted only two home runs last season. Keep your eye on him. Available in 66 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Yunel Escobar – Escobar’s power and production dipped last year, but his impressive start (.375 AVG, 1 HR, 3 RBI) gives hope that he’s returned to 2009 form when he hit .299 with 14 dingers and 76 RBI. Available in 40 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Connecticut – Too late to claim UConn, but this seems like the appropriate place to boast that I picked them to win it all. Of course, since I had three brackets, I also had them losing.

Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin 's fantasy advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday 9-10 during football season, and before Texans games.

Q&A with Texans voice Marc Vandermeer

One week before Super Bowl XLV, I sat down with Voice of the Houston Texans and Sports Radio 610 morning host Marc Vandermeer to 1) learn more about the man behind the mike, 2) give me an excuse to write about our fantasy championship and 3) make fun of his hobby. Just wait, it’s a good one.

Erin: As Super Bowl Sunday approaches, are you reminded of another Super Bowl – you know, five weeks ago when we clinched the Sports Radio 610 fantasy championship?

Marc: Well, my involvement in our fantasy run is about the same as my involvement in the Packers and Steelers. None. Note to readers: Erin ran my fantasy team from draft day to championship. I did, on occasion, ask her how things were going and did enjoy basking in the glow of many victories.

Erin: Is that a whimper I hear?

Marc: Yes, I’m emotional.

Erin: Speaking of emotional and erratic, do you remember the day you tried to fire me as your general manager?

Marc: No.

Erin: I do. And you did it on the air. Humiliating.

Marc: I was hoping you forgot.

Erin: Um, no. I used it as motivation and I persevered.

Erin: What is life like for you in the off-season?

Marc: It's like waking up from a long dream or returning from a trip to outer space. The season for me goes in warp speed and I'm completely wrapped up in it. Upon completion, I notice that my son has gotten much bigger and I might benefit from a shave. Other than that, it's full throttle on the morning show on Sports Radio 610.

Erin: What does the Vanderfamily do?

Marc: They want more time with me and usually there is a honey-do list the size of the Manhattan phone book.

Erin: Do you ever use the term "Vanderfamily" when introducing your wife and kid?

Marc: Of course! It's all about branding these days, you know. I attach the 'Vander' prefix to a great many things and feel very protective of it. Someone told me there is a place in New York called VanderBar. I am currently contacting the VanderLawyer to execute a cease and desist.

Erin: Does the Vanderwife roll her eyes?

Marc: She'll put up with it as long as the direct deposits keep coming in and no one cancels the Nordstrom card.

Vanderwife: Yes, I roll my eyes.

Erin: Are you considering resuming your hobby as a competitive boater?

Marc: That would be competitive sailor! Yes, Houston is loaded with great sailors. There are numerous national championships in different boat classes raced here every year.

Erin: I now know which Village People outfit suits you.

Erin: Are you aware that it's possibly the lamest sport to claim as your own?

Marc: Only when I'm reminded of this by people like you and (Sports Radio 610 co-host John) Lopez. Trust me, if most critics get out there in Galveston Bay on a 20-knot day in a Vanguard 15 or a Melges 24, they'd change their minds real fast.

Erin: I don’t know what a Melges is, but I’ll stick to fake football.

Erin: If you had a yacht, what would you name it?

Marc: I was going to name it Erin the Fantasy Girl, but now I'm reconsidering.

Erin: Who's your pick in the Super Bowl?

Marc: I really want this one for Dom Capers but I think the Steelers will win.

Erin: Why don't you like Aaron Rodgers? I've heard your smack talk.

Marc: I think he's a great quarterback. I just think there's such a rush by the media to put him next to Brees, Manning and Brady and he hasn't done enough for that yet. Plus, I'm jealous. Two years ago Matt Schaub beat him head to head. I think if Schaub had the Green Bay defense he would be in the post season too.

Erin: You know, Rodgers is my fantasy quarterback. I think I might love him.

Marc: But that's not unconditional love. Isn't it more like a prolonged fantasy football one-night stand? I've seen you turn your back on your fantasy players and replace them with the next 'flavor of the month.' Don't deny it.

Erin: Any early projections for the Texans 2011 season?

Marc: Wade Philips will certainly make a difference. They should be extremely productive on offense again. I just hope they get enough of an off season and preseason to get that 3-4 defense going. The lockout has me worried.

Erin: You called some tough plays this season…what was the worst?

Marc: Jets – meltdown in less than a minute, Baltimore – Pick 6 in overtime, Jacksonville - Hail Mary, San Diego - Andre's knee, all tie for the top spot. Tebow makes honorable mention.

Erin: I only asked for one.

Erin: What’s the biggest meltdown you’ve ever had on the air?

Marc: The worst I've felt after a loss is my "Stop the Vinsanity" call after Vince Young ran for 39 yards for the winning TD in overtime in 2006. That one stung for a while.

Erin: What are your projections for our 2011 fantasy team?

Marc: I predict more doom and destruction for any team that goes up against a squad managed by you. That's why I have a first right of refusal to renew your contract each year. I can't bear the thought of actually competing against you.

Erin: Actually, you can bear the thought. Remember, you tried to dump me.


Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday 9-10 during football season, and before Texans games.