I’m no expert. But men and women are more alike than we think. We both love value, only we find it in different places. Women boast about the bargain bin jeans that cost 10 bucks. Men brag about nabbing Peyton Hillis off the waiver wire. “Dude, he was undrafted.” I heard that a dozen times last year. It’s the same thing. Or maybe not. A fantasy pick never made me feel fat.
Still, you get my point. We all want value. And more importantly, we want credit for it. All that work better make us look smarter than our friends. Here are a few thrifty picks that mimic the expensive stuff:
Danny Amendola – Hmmm. Did you see what I saw? Looks like Danny could be a playground favorite for Sam Bradford this year. 70 yards on eight passes in limited play. I know the Rams are stacked with receiving options, but Josh McDaniels’ arrival means a stronger air attack this year. I like Amendola in the double digit rounds and slot him in the 3WR.
Felix Jones – Finally, Jones is getting his chance. No doubt he had the talent, just needed his turn (ahem, Marion Barber). Making Papa Jerry proud so far this camp. Going in round 6. A steal!
Jimmy Graham – Shoppers: tight ends are like paper towels. Unless you get the really expensive Brawny or Bounty brands, the rest are a lot alike. Perhaps a ridiculous over-simplification, but I think it works. Save your early picks for RBs and WRs and get a tight end late. With Shockey out in New Orleans, Graham has the potential to take his place. Runner up: Detroit’s Brandon Pettigrew.
Tim Hightower – Once again, Hightower is making the most of an opportunity. With Ryan Torain nursing a broken hand, Hightower is impressing Mike Shanahan. He’s running, he’s blocking, he’s doing all the right things. Hightower could be the starter, and he’s currently going in the 10th round. Yes, the 10th round!
Mike Tolbert – See Ryan Mathews. Norv Turner has admitted he’ll use the tandem bike this year. Mathews will likely land the starting job, but Tolbert will still see considerable time. Look how effective he was last year: 735 rushing yards and 11 TDs. Also, Mathews is a health risk, so I like Mikey.
Shonn Greene – How else will the Jets get the ball down field?
Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Fantasy Preview: Players to Avoid
It’s nothing personal, but I don’t like ‘em. Not as fantasy picks anyway. Sure, if they drop really far in the draft, cool, I’ll gladly take them and pretend this article never existed. But I caution you against taking them at the current asking price. Don’t be a sucker. Let someone else make the mistake.
Maurice Jones-Drew – It pains me to put this little cutie pie in the corner. He’s MJD and everyone loves him. And his playful desire to appease fantasy owners is a bonus. But I’m worried about his knee. Not because of a prolonged leave of absence, or the risk of re-injury. I’m worried that he won’t be able to cut and change speeds quickly, and burn his defenders like he does every year. And I’m worried he’ll disappoint and play like a No. 25 draft choice vs. a No. 5. And let’s not forget Rashad Jennings could siphon some playing time. Sorry, MJD. No hard feelings, right?
Brandon Lloyd – The No. 1 wide receiver of 2010 will not repeat. Mark my words. Lloyd’s 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns were impressive, but also an abnormality in the fantasy universe. For starters, look at his history: mediocre. Look at the changes in play calling: Josh McDaniels vs. John Fox. And lastly, look at how he earned his catches: repeatedly winning jump balls over his defenders. The chance that lightning strikes twice? Zero. The chance that I’ll use an overused cliché? Most definite.
Ryan Mathews – This one may not surprise you. The most coveted rookie of 2010 disappointed last year, skipping much of the season with injuries. He watched as Mike Tolbert blossomed with nearly 1,000 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns. When Mathews did play, he produced mixed reviews: 678 yards and 7 scores: good. Five fumbles: bad. Everyone knew the two backs were expected to share carries this year. How did Mathews respond to the inevitable competition? He arrived at training camp out of shape, failing the physical. Nice job, Ryan. I will not draft you.
LeSean McCoy – This one will surprise you. He’s a premier back on a premier team. McCoy rushed for 1,080 yards, with a ton of receptions (78 ), which is yummy in PPR leagues. But in every league, scoring is paramount. And McCoy just didn’t get enough chances at the goal, mustering only seven rushing TDs. The reason: Michael Vick, who can run and score just as easily. And if that’s not enough, the Eagles signed bulldozer Ronnie Brown. Gulp.
Reggie Wayne – He’s neither injured or unfit. Perhaps a little overrated. But the real reason Wayne’s on this list: he’s old and worn down. Take his decline in production in the final weeks last season, and his six measly touchdowns as proof. Plus, he has young pups now competing for the ball. Manning doesn’t have favorites anymore. And perhaps the best reason: his training camp interviews. He comments on how young and fresh he feels. Young people don’t do that. If he’s your No. 1 receiver, I hope you’re No. 2 makes up for it.
Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.
Maurice Jones-Drew – It pains me to put this little cutie pie in the corner. He’s MJD and everyone loves him. And his playful desire to appease fantasy owners is a bonus. But I’m worried about his knee. Not because of a prolonged leave of absence, or the risk of re-injury. I’m worried that he won’t be able to cut and change speeds quickly, and burn his defenders like he does every year. And I’m worried he’ll disappoint and play like a No. 25 draft choice vs. a No. 5. And let’s not forget Rashad Jennings could siphon some playing time. Sorry, MJD. No hard feelings, right?
Brandon Lloyd – The No. 1 wide receiver of 2010 will not repeat. Mark my words. Lloyd’s 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns were impressive, but also an abnormality in the fantasy universe. For starters, look at his history: mediocre. Look at the changes in play calling: Josh McDaniels vs. John Fox. And lastly, look at how he earned his catches: repeatedly winning jump balls over his defenders. The chance that lightning strikes twice? Zero. The chance that I’ll use an overused cliché? Most definite.
Ryan Mathews – This one may not surprise you. The most coveted rookie of 2010 disappointed last year, skipping much of the season with injuries. He watched as Mike Tolbert blossomed with nearly 1,000 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns. When Mathews did play, he produced mixed reviews: 678 yards and 7 scores: good. Five fumbles: bad. Everyone knew the two backs were expected to share carries this year. How did Mathews respond to the inevitable competition? He arrived at training camp out of shape, failing the physical. Nice job, Ryan. I will not draft you.
LeSean McCoy – This one will surprise you. He’s a premier back on a premier team. McCoy rushed for 1,080 yards, with a ton of receptions (78 ), which is yummy in PPR leagues. But in every league, scoring is paramount. And McCoy just didn’t get enough chances at the goal, mustering only seven rushing TDs. The reason: Michael Vick, who can run and score just as easily. And if that’s not enough, the Eagles signed bulldozer Ronnie Brown. Gulp.
Reggie Wayne – He’s neither injured or unfit. Perhaps a little overrated. But the real reason Wayne’s on this list: he’s old and worn down. Take his decline in production in the final weeks last season, and his six measly touchdowns as proof. Plus, he has young pups now competing for the ball. Manning doesn’t have favorites anymore. And perhaps the best reason: his training camp interviews. He comments on how young and fresh he feels. Young people don’t do that. If he’s your No. 1 receiver, I hope you’re No. 2 makes up for it.
Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Fantasy Preview: Top 10 Picks
I waiver. Experience and consistency or youth and upside. I want to pick Arian, but I’m recommending Adrian. Only because it’s safer. I don’t mind gambling a little in the later rounds, but not the first round and certainly not the first pick. For No. 1, safety first. But don’t worry. Your argument is valid if you choose Team Foster instead. Both Adrian and Arian can propel your team to do great things. Here are my top 10:
1. Adrian Peterson – Not just All Day and every day, but every year. Peterson’s the only back who has finished in the top five in points for four consecutive seasons. With 1,298 rushing yards, 12 scores and improved ball control, Peterson is poised to do even more this season. Donovan McNabb brings experience and control to the Vikings offense. Expect them to pound the ball all day via All Day.
2. Arian Foster – Thank you, Arian. I nabbed you in the 11th round in an experts’ league last season. We drafted in August well before anyone knew your name. I felt so smart when you earned the starting role. Even smarter when you became a fantasy dream: most rushing yards (1,616), most TDs (16 rushing, 2 receiving), plus 606 receiving yards. Too bad you don’t earn points for personality too. If the Texans can take a lead into the fourth quarter this year, just imagine all the additional garbage yards.
3. Jamaal Charles – I’ve been a member of his fan club for years. Handcuffed by Todd Haley’s infatuation with old and slow running backs, Charles still amazed the league with his 1,467 rushing yards and a sparkling 6.4 yards-per-carry. But Thomas Jones poached his scores, leaving him with only eight. My take this year: not even Haley can hold back the league’s most explosive running back.
4. Ray Rice – I can hear Ray Rice: Goodbye McGahee, hello Leach! Wait, what? We just got Ricky Williams? Nooooooo. Rice had a lousy September last year, but after week 5, he plowed for 1,236 yards. If I do the math right, Rice – McGahee + Leach + Williams = equals a premier fantasy back.
5. Chris Johnson – Johnson has shown consistency and a very high level of awesome-ness, amassing 4,598 yards in just three years. Can Johnson return to C2K? My biggest concern is his lack of help around him. Handing it off to Johnson on downs 1-4 will work for only so long. I know, I know. He’s Chris Johnson! And that’s why he’s in my top 5. But defenses know this too. They read my blog.
6. Andre Johnson – While projected to be the NFL’s top receiver in 2010, his numbers disappointed, and a handful of guys finished ahead of him. But look closely, and it’s because he missed three games. Johnson averaged 93.5 yards per game to top all NFL wide receivers. He’s amazing. And I love him. And no, my closet full of 80 jerseys is not influencing my advice.
7. Rashard Mendenhall – The tweeting RB is expected to get a ton of touches this year. While there are other backs with better mechanics, he ranks this high because he’s a Steeler, and all the scoring opportunities. Lots of goal line carries expected this year.
8. Michael Turner – I’m worried about his health and just how long he can last, but despite wearing down last year, Turner still finished third in rushing yards. He’s a total workhorse and as long as he’s in the game, you want him.
9. Aaron Rodgers – Yes, Rodgers over Vick. He’s the total package – arm and legs, with 3,922 passing yards combined with 322 yards rushing. Draft him and enjoy. I just worry (for my own sake) that he’s not the sneaky pickup he used to be.
10. Michael Vick – Finished 2010 with a career best 2,018 yards and 21 passing TDs (plus nine rushing). And while he’s a better rusher than Rodgers, he also has more risk. His physical play makes me nervous. Also defenses have learned his game – just look at his declining numbers over the 2010 season.
Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy football knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.
1. Adrian Peterson – Not just All Day and every day, but every year. Peterson’s the only back who has finished in the top five in points for four consecutive seasons. With 1,298 rushing yards, 12 scores and improved ball control, Peterson is poised to do even more this season. Donovan McNabb brings experience and control to the Vikings offense. Expect them to pound the ball all day via All Day.
2. Arian Foster – Thank you, Arian. I nabbed you in the 11th round in an experts’ league last season. We drafted in August well before anyone knew your name. I felt so smart when you earned the starting role. Even smarter when you became a fantasy dream: most rushing yards (1,616), most TDs (16 rushing, 2 receiving), plus 606 receiving yards. Too bad you don’t earn points for personality too. If the Texans can take a lead into the fourth quarter this year, just imagine all the additional garbage yards.
3. Jamaal Charles – I’ve been a member of his fan club for years. Handcuffed by Todd Haley’s infatuation with old and slow running backs, Charles still amazed the league with his 1,467 rushing yards and a sparkling 6.4 yards-per-carry. But Thomas Jones poached his scores, leaving him with only eight. My take this year: not even Haley can hold back the league’s most explosive running back.
4. Ray Rice – I can hear Ray Rice: Goodbye McGahee, hello Leach! Wait, what? We just got Ricky Williams? Nooooooo. Rice had a lousy September last year, but after week 5, he plowed for 1,236 yards. If I do the math right, Rice – McGahee + Leach + Williams = equals a premier fantasy back.
5. Chris Johnson – Johnson has shown consistency and a very high level of awesome-ness, amassing 4,598 yards in just three years. Can Johnson return to C2K? My biggest concern is his lack of help around him. Handing it off to Johnson on downs 1-4 will work for only so long. I know, I know. He’s Chris Johnson! And that’s why he’s in my top 5. But defenses know this too. They read my blog.
6. Andre Johnson – While projected to be the NFL’s top receiver in 2010, his numbers disappointed, and a handful of guys finished ahead of him. But look closely, and it’s because he missed three games. Johnson averaged 93.5 yards per game to top all NFL wide receivers. He’s amazing. And I love him. And no, my closet full of 80 jerseys is not influencing my advice.
7. Rashard Mendenhall – The tweeting RB is expected to get a ton of touches this year. While there are other backs with better mechanics, he ranks this high because he’s a Steeler, and all the scoring opportunities. Lots of goal line carries expected this year.
8. Michael Turner – I’m worried about his health and just how long he can last, but despite wearing down last year, Turner still finished third in rushing yards. He’s a total workhorse and as long as he’s in the game, you want him.
9. Aaron Rodgers – Yes, Rodgers over Vick. He’s the total package – arm and legs, with 3,922 passing yards combined with 322 yards rushing. Draft him and enjoy. I just worry (for my own sake) that he’s not the sneaky pickup he used to be.
10. Michael Vick – Finished 2010 with a career best 2,018 yards and 21 passing TDs (plus nine rushing). And while he’s a better rusher than Rodgers, he also has more risk. His physical play makes me nervous. Also defenses have learned his game – just look at his declining numbers over the 2010 season.
Erin Skelley joins SportsRadio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy football knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Fantasy Preview: Surveying the Experts
The offseason can be lonely. Especially when your team misses the playoffs. Again. Add to that the uncertainly of the 2011 season, and nothing but women’s soccer to comfort you. I too was sad and anxious, but it’s time to pull yourself together. Fantasy football is back.
But there’s one problem. Offseason studying was uninspiring. And now you’re paying the price. Like a linebacker entering training camp with 20 extra pounds. Fortunately, I made a few phone calls to an assortment of fantasy experts and sports biz friends to help. Why I’m rarely wrong (a fat lie), why not get a little help from my friends.
This esteemed group of gurus includes Brad Evans, Yahoo! Sports writer/personality, Chris Liss, managing editor of Rotowire.com, Ray Flowers, host of The Fantasy Drive –XM 87, Sirius 210, Jason Friedman, Rockets.com beat writer and obsessed fantasy guy, and J.J. Moses, retired Houston Texans player.
Who do you like at No. 1? Adrian or Arian?
Liss: Adrian Peterson. Because he does it every year and I think the team will lean on him even more heavily this season.
Moses: Arian Foster. Oh by the way, did I forget to say, he’s the NFL’s leading rusher?
Skelley: I hate picking first. I feel doomed. There are lots of stars, but the No. 1 guy has to be special. He is someone who demonstrates consistency and has special powers to thwart injuries. Both Peterson and Foster could fit that bill. But Peterson has done it longer. It’s a safer pick.
Evans: Arian. Vonta Leach’s departure to Baltimore smarts a little, but with a superb line, great passing offense, defined “bell cow” role and versatile skill set, Foster is the indisputable No. 1 pick. Peterson is still a top-five back, but question marks surrounding McNabb, especially minus Sidney Rice, and the offensive line are hard to ignore.
Friedman: Is "no one" a legitimate answer? Seriously, somebody please show me a player who so clearly separates himself from the pack that he should be deemed worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. Michael Vick clearly possesses the potential to be that guy, but do you really feel comfortable taking a quarterback who's a significant injury risk at that spot, knowing you won't be able to address any of the other positions until after approximately 20 other players have been removed from the board? Keep in mind that question comes courtesy of someone who was fortunate enough to thoroughly enjoy the Michael Vick experience from a fantasy perspective last year. Not sure I'd have the intestinal fortitude necessary to take him with the top pick, though. More likely I'd play it safe and (reluctantly) grab Adrian Peterson. All of which is my typically long-winded way of saying I'd walk away with an exceedingly uneasy feeling no matter whom I selected No. 1 overall this year.
Flowers: You can make an argument for multiple players to be first off the board in fantasy football. Michael Vick passed like he was Ben Roethlisberger and ran like he was Ryan Mathews last season. Jamaal Charles had a historic 6.4 yards per carry mark and owns a 6.0 mark for his career. Chris Johnson is one year removed from going for over two grand, and last year ran for 1,364 yards and 11 scores while catching 44 passes. Adrian Peterson is coming off his least productive rushing season though he still ran for 1,298 yards and scored 12 times on the ground. Despite all of those accolades, the No. 1 player off the board this season in fantasy football drafts should be Arian Foster. The Texans' runner led the NFL with 1,616 yards rushing and 16 rushing scores. He was also second at the position with 66 receptions while his total of 604 yards receiving paced all backs (he also scored twice through the air). Foster also racked up eight 100-yard rushing games and had seven games in which he did at least two end zone boogies. It's Foster or bust in 2011.
Who are the big free agency winners?
Liss: Chad Ochocinco. Playing with a top-five, all-time quarterback (Tom Brady) on a team without a No. 1 wide receiver is a huge upgrade. I've moved him up to No. 22 on the WR board.
Skelley: Larry Fitzgerald should reap the rewards with Kevin Kolb now feeding him. If you picked Fitzgerald in the first round last year, you probably defended it, but you really weren’t happy with six wimpy scores. Expect vintage Fitz this year: 1,200 yards, 10-plus touchdowns.
Evans: Completely agree on Ocho and Fitz. Both should rebound nicely. But Mike-Sims Walker is also a big winner. If he exudes the work ethic and stamina he once did with the Jags two years ago, he’s capable of emerging a top-flight WR2/3 within Josh McDaniels’ pass-happy offense. Sam Bradford is dreamy.
Flowers: Mike Sims-Walker goes to the Rams, and while that doesn't sound like much, it's something. The Rams have a gaggle of wide receivers who are injury prone, inexperienced and/or small, so MSW certainly has a chance to make some waves. A year removed from a 63-catch, 869-yard effort, MSW has scored 14 times the past two years, three more times than Wes Welker and only one fewer than DeSean Jackson. MSW isn't going to be an All-Pro, but working with an ever improving Sam Bradford he could best the numbers that he posted in 2009.
Friedman: Texans fans aren't going to like hearing this, but surely the Ravens' Ray Rice did a happy dance the second he heard Vonta Leach will now be bulldozing paths for Rice to run through this season. I also have to believe the Eagles defense will be highly rated after the embarrassment of riches their free agent haul provided, but NO defense should be selected before the latter rounds, so take that with a pretty significant serving of salt.
Moses: Darren Sproles being traded to the Saints will have an impact in helping with the void that Reggie Bush will leave. I have to support family, a Waterloo native, and guys who are 5'6.
Anyone you’re avoiding in the draft?
Friedman: I wouldn't say I'm "avoiding" anyone per se; to me it's simply all about value. Would I feel good about taking an overworked, increasingly-injured Steven Jackson in the top-15? Not really. But should he somehow slip another 10 spots, he'd suddenly start to look like a pick that would make you feel pretty darn good about yourself.
Skelley: My no-Steven Jackson policy remains in effect. Also, despite an incredible 2010 campaign, Peyton Hillis won’t repeat.
Liss: Whoever Brad Evans likes.
Evans: For the record, while Liss was contemplating life “lifting” his Shake Weight last August, yours truly was singing the praises of Arian Foster and Right Coast Mike Williams. Sometimes a blind squirrel does indeed find a nut. Also, Maurice Jones-Drew has the plague as far as I’m concerned. Coming off knee surgery and with Rashad Jennings expected to shoulder an increased load, the Oompah-Loompah is not the elite RB1 people are drafting him as.
Who are your sleeper picks?
Flowers: Mike Tolbert is being drafted about five rounds later than Ryan Mathews despite the fact that Tolbert scored four more touchdowns and ran for 57 more yards than the younger Mathews last season. With Mathews coming off an injury-filled campaign (plus the fact that he is already dealing with injuries in camp), and the fact that Darren Sproles is no longer with the club to take away looks on third down means that Tolbert could once again be a vital part of the Chargers offense.
Friedman: Most, if not all, of these probably qualify more as the deep sleeper variety: QB: Tim Tebow, RB: Ben Tate, WR: Emmanuel Sanders, TE: Jared Cook.
Liss: I like Earl Bennett to catch 80-plus balls as Jay Cutler's go-to guy. I also like Percy Harvin (should have a bigger role this year).
Evans: In PPR formats, Danny Amendola is pure gold. He could be the NFC’s answer to Wes Welker. Standard formats, how about Delone Carter? Joe Addai is the proven vet, yes, but he’s very injury prone. The rookie from Syracuse is a between-the-tackles grinder who should, at a minimum, be the goal-line back. It’s very possible he supersedes Addai entirely at some point.
Skelley: Breakout year for Josh Freeman.
Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy football knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.
But there’s one problem. Offseason studying was uninspiring. And now you’re paying the price. Like a linebacker entering training camp with 20 extra pounds. Fortunately, I made a few phone calls to an assortment of fantasy experts and sports biz friends to help. Why I’m rarely wrong (a fat lie), why not get a little help from my friends.
This esteemed group of gurus includes Brad Evans, Yahoo! Sports writer/personality, Chris Liss, managing editor of Rotowire.com, Ray Flowers, host of The Fantasy Drive –XM 87, Sirius 210, Jason Friedman, Rockets.com beat writer and obsessed fantasy guy, and J.J. Moses, retired Houston Texans player.
Who do you like at No. 1? Adrian or Arian?
Liss: Adrian Peterson. Because he does it every year and I think the team will lean on him even more heavily this season.
Moses: Arian Foster. Oh by the way, did I forget to say, he’s the NFL’s leading rusher?
Skelley: I hate picking first. I feel doomed. There are lots of stars, but the No. 1 guy has to be special. He is someone who demonstrates consistency and has special powers to thwart injuries. Both Peterson and Foster could fit that bill. But Peterson has done it longer. It’s a safer pick.
Evans: Arian. Vonta Leach’s departure to Baltimore smarts a little, but with a superb line, great passing offense, defined “bell cow” role and versatile skill set, Foster is the indisputable No. 1 pick. Peterson is still a top-five back, but question marks surrounding McNabb, especially minus Sidney Rice, and the offensive line are hard to ignore.
Friedman: Is "no one" a legitimate answer? Seriously, somebody please show me a player who so clearly separates himself from the pack that he should be deemed worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. Michael Vick clearly possesses the potential to be that guy, but do you really feel comfortable taking a quarterback who's a significant injury risk at that spot, knowing you won't be able to address any of the other positions until after approximately 20 other players have been removed from the board? Keep in mind that question comes courtesy of someone who was fortunate enough to thoroughly enjoy the Michael Vick experience from a fantasy perspective last year. Not sure I'd have the intestinal fortitude necessary to take him with the top pick, though. More likely I'd play it safe and (reluctantly) grab Adrian Peterson. All of which is my typically long-winded way of saying I'd walk away with an exceedingly uneasy feeling no matter whom I selected No. 1 overall this year.
Flowers: You can make an argument for multiple players to be first off the board in fantasy football. Michael Vick passed like he was Ben Roethlisberger and ran like he was Ryan Mathews last season. Jamaal Charles had a historic 6.4 yards per carry mark and owns a 6.0 mark for his career. Chris Johnson is one year removed from going for over two grand, and last year ran for 1,364 yards and 11 scores while catching 44 passes. Adrian Peterson is coming off his least productive rushing season though he still ran for 1,298 yards and scored 12 times on the ground. Despite all of those accolades, the No. 1 player off the board this season in fantasy football drafts should be Arian Foster. The Texans' runner led the NFL with 1,616 yards rushing and 16 rushing scores. He was also second at the position with 66 receptions while his total of 604 yards receiving paced all backs (he also scored twice through the air). Foster also racked up eight 100-yard rushing games and had seven games in which he did at least two end zone boogies. It's Foster or bust in 2011.
Who are the big free agency winners?
Liss: Chad Ochocinco. Playing with a top-five, all-time quarterback (Tom Brady) on a team without a No. 1 wide receiver is a huge upgrade. I've moved him up to No. 22 on the WR board.
Skelley: Larry Fitzgerald should reap the rewards with Kevin Kolb now feeding him. If you picked Fitzgerald in the first round last year, you probably defended it, but you really weren’t happy with six wimpy scores. Expect vintage Fitz this year: 1,200 yards, 10-plus touchdowns.
Evans: Completely agree on Ocho and Fitz. Both should rebound nicely. But Mike-Sims Walker is also a big winner. If he exudes the work ethic and stamina he once did with the Jags two years ago, he’s capable of emerging a top-flight WR2/3 within Josh McDaniels’ pass-happy offense. Sam Bradford is dreamy.
Flowers: Mike Sims-Walker goes to the Rams, and while that doesn't sound like much, it's something. The Rams have a gaggle of wide receivers who are injury prone, inexperienced and/or small, so MSW certainly has a chance to make some waves. A year removed from a 63-catch, 869-yard effort, MSW has scored 14 times the past two years, three more times than Wes Welker and only one fewer than DeSean Jackson. MSW isn't going to be an All-Pro, but working with an ever improving Sam Bradford he could best the numbers that he posted in 2009.
Friedman: Texans fans aren't going to like hearing this, but surely the Ravens' Ray Rice did a happy dance the second he heard Vonta Leach will now be bulldozing paths for Rice to run through this season. I also have to believe the Eagles defense will be highly rated after the embarrassment of riches their free agent haul provided, but NO defense should be selected before the latter rounds, so take that with a pretty significant serving of salt.
Moses: Darren Sproles being traded to the Saints will have an impact in helping with the void that Reggie Bush will leave. I have to support family, a Waterloo native, and guys who are 5'6.
Anyone you’re avoiding in the draft?
Friedman: I wouldn't say I'm "avoiding" anyone per se; to me it's simply all about value. Would I feel good about taking an overworked, increasingly-injured Steven Jackson in the top-15? Not really. But should he somehow slip another 10 spots, he'd suddenly start to look like a pick that would make you feel pretty darn good about yourself.
Skelley: My no-Steven Jackson policy remains in effect. Also, despite an incredible 2010 campaign, Peyton Hillis won’t repeat.
Liss: Whoever Brad Evans likes.
Evans: For the record, while Liss was contemplating life “lifting” his Shake Weight last August, yours truly was singing the praises of Arian Foster and Right Coast Mike Williams. Sometimes a blind squirrel does indeed find a nut. Also, Maurice Jones-Drew has the plague as far as I’m concerned. Coming off knee surgery and with Rashad Jennings expected to shoulder an increased load, the Oompah-Loompah is not the elite RB1 people are drafting him as.
Who are your sleeper picks?
Flowers: Mike Tolbert is being drafted about five rounds later than Ryan Mathews despite the fact that Tolbert scored four more touchdowns and ran for 57 more yards than the younger Mathews last season. With Mathews coming off an injury-filled campaign (plus the fact that he is already dealing with injuries in camp), and the fact that Darren Sproles is no longer with the club to take away looks on third down means that Tolbert could once again be a vital part of the Chargers offense.
Friedman: Most, if not all, of these probably qualify more as the deep sleeper variety: QB: Tim Tebow, RB: Ben Tate, WR: Emmanuel Sanders, TE: Jared Cook.
Liss: I like Earl Bennett to catch 80-plus balls as Jay Cutler's go-to guy. I also like Percy Harvin (should have a bigger role this year).
Evans: In PPR formats, Danny Amendola is pure gold. He could be the NFC’s answer to Wes Welker. Standard formats, how about Delone Carter? Joe Addai is the proven vet, yes, but he’s very injury prone. The rookie from Syracuse is a between-the-tackles grinder who should, at a minimum, be the goal-line back. It’s very possible he supersedes Addai entirely at some point.
Skelley: Breakout year for Josh Freeman.
Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy football knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.
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