Fantasy Preview: Surveying the Experts

The offseason can be lonely. Especially when your team misses the playoffs. Again. Add to that the uncertainly of the 2011 season, and nothing but women’s soccer to comfort you. I too was sad and anxious, but it’s time to pull yourself together. Fantasy football is back.

But there’s one problem. Offseason studying was uninspiring. And now you’re paying the price. Like a linebacker entering training camp with 20 extra pounds. Fortunately, I made a few phone calls to an assortment of fantasy experts and sports biz friends to help. Why I’m rarely wrong (a fat lie), why not get a little help from my friends.

This esteemed group of gurus includes Brad Evans, Yahoo! Sports writer/personality, Chris Liss, managing editor of Rotowire.com, Ray Flowers, host of The Fantasy Drive –XM 87, Sirius 210, Jason Friedman, Rockets.com beat writer and obsessed fantasy guy, and J.J. Moses, retired Houston Texans player.

Who do you like at No. 1? Adrian or Arian?

Liss: Adrian Peterson. Because he does it every year and I think the team will lean on him even more heavily this season.

Moses: Arian Foster. Oh by the way, did I forget to say, he’s the NFL’s leading rusher?

Skelley: I hate picking first. I feel doomed. There are lots of stars, but the No. 1 guy has to be special. He is someone who demonstrates consistency and has special powers to thwart injuries. Both Peterson and Foster could fit that bill. But Peterson has done it longer. It’s a safer pick.

Evans: Arian. Vonta Leach’s departure to Baltimore smarts a little, but with a superb line, great passing offense, defined “bell cow” role and versatile skill set, Foster is the indisputable No. 1 pick. Peterson is still a top-five back, but question marks surrounding McNabb, especially minus Sidney Rice, and the offensive line are hard to ignore.

Friedman: Is "no one" a legitimate answer? Seriously, somebody please show me a player who so clearly separates himself from the pack that he should be deemed worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. Michael Vick clearly possesses the potential to be that guy, but do you really feel comfortable taking a quarterback who's a significant injury risk at that spot, knowing you won't be able to address any of the other positions until after approximately 20 other players have been removed from the board? Keep in mind that question comes courtesy of someone who was fortunate enough to thoroughly enjoy the Michael Vick experience from a fantasy perspective last year. Not sure I'd have the intestinal fortitude necessary to take him with the top pick, though. More likely I'd play it safe and (reluctantly) grab Adrian Peterson. All of which is my typically long-winded way of saying I'd walk away with an exceedingly uneasy feeling no matter whom I selected No. 1 overall this year.

Flowers: You can make an argument for multiple players to be first off the board in fantasy football. Michael Vick passed like he was Ben Roethlisberger and ran like he was Ryan Mathews last season. Jamaal Charles had a historic 6.4 yards per carry mark and owns a 6.0 mark for his career. Chris Johnson is one year removed from going for over two grand, and last year ran for 1,364 yards and 11 scores while catching 44 passes. Adrian Peterson is coming off his least productive rushing season though he still ran for 1,298 yards and scored 12 times on the ground. Despite all of those accolades, the No. 1 player off the board this season in fantasy football drafts should be Arian Foster. The Texans' runner led the NFL with 1,616 yards rushing and 16 rushing scores. He was also second at the position with 66 receptions while his total of 604 yards receiving paced all backs (he also scored twice through the air). Foster also racked up eight 100-yard rushing games and had seven games in which he did at least two end zone boogies. It's Foster or bust in 2011.

Who are the big free agency winners?

Liss: Chad Ochocinco. Playing with a top-five, all-time quarterback (Tom Brady) on a team without a No. 1 wide receiver is a huge upgrade. I've moved him up to No. 22 on the WR board.

Skelley: Larry Fitzgerald should reap the rewards with Kevin Kolb now feeding him. If you picked Fitzgerald in the first round last year, you probably defended it, but you really weren’t happy with six wimpy scores. Expect vintage Fitz this year: 1,200 yards, 10-plus touchdowns.

Evans: Completely agree on Ocho and Fitz. Both should rebound nicely. But Mike-Sims Walker is also a big winner. If he exudes the work ethic and stamina he once did with the Jags two years ago, he’s capable of emerging a top-flight WR2/3 within Josh McDaniels’ pass-happy offense. Sam Bradford is dreamy.

Flowers: Mike Sims-Walker goes to the Rams, and while that doesn't sound like much, it's something. The Rams have a gaggle of wide receivers who are injury prone, inexperienced and/or small, so MSW certainly has a chance to make some waves. A year removed from a 63-catch, 869-yard effort, MSW has scored 14 times the past two years, three more times than Wes Welker and only one fewer than DeSean Jackson. MSW isn't going to be an All-Pro, but working with an ever improving Sam Bradford he could best the numbers that he posted in 2009.

Friedman: Texans fans aren't going to like hearing this, but surely the Ravens' Ray Rice did a happy dance the second he heard Vonta Leach will now be bulldozing paths for Rice to run through this season. I also have to believe the Eagles defense will be highly rated after the embarrassment of riches their free agent haul provided, but NO defense should be selected before the latter rounds, so take that with a pretty significant serving of salt.

Moses: Darren Sproles being traded to the Saints will have an impact in helping with the void that Reggie Bush will leave. I have to support family, a Waterloo native, and guys who are 5'6.

Anyone you’re avoiding in the draft?

Friedman: I wouldn't say I'm "avoiding" anyone per se; to me it's simply all about value. Would I feel good about taking an overworked, increasingly-injured Steven Jackson in the top-15? Not really. But should he somehow slip another 10 spots, he'd suddenly start to look like a pick that would make you feel pretty darn good about yourself.

Skelley: My no-Steven Jackson policy remains in effect. Also, despite an incredible 2010 campaign, Peyton Hillis won’t repeat.

Liss: Whoever Brad Evans likes.

Evans: For the record, while Liss was contemplating life “lifting” his Shake Weight last August, yours truly was singing the praises of Arian Foster and Right Coast Mike Williams. Sometimes a blind squirrel does indeed find a nut. Also, Maurice Jones-Drew has the plague as far as I’m concerned. Coming off knee surgery and with Rashad Jennings expected to shoulder an increased load, the Oompah-Loompah is not the elite RB1 people are drafting him as.

Who are your sleeper picks?

Flowers: Mike Tolbert is being drafted about five rounds later than Ryan Mathews despite the fact that Tolbert scored four more touchdowns and ran for 57 more yards than the younger Mathews last season. With Mathews coming off an injury-filled campaign (plus the fact that he is already dealing with injuries in camp), and the fact that Darren Sproles is no longer with the club to take away looks on third down means that Tolbert could once again be a vital part of the Chargers offense.

Friedman: Most, if not all, of these probably qualify more as the deep sleeper variety: QB: Tim Tebow, RB: Ben Tate, WR: Emmanuel Sanders, TE: Jared Cook.

Liss: I like Earl Bennett to catch 80-plus balls as Jay Cutler's go-to guy. I also like Percy Harvin (should have a bigger role this year).

Evans: In PPR formats, Danny Amendola is pure gold. He could be the NFC’s answer to Wes Welker. Standard formats, how about Delone Carter? Joe Addai is the proven vet, yes, but he’s very injury prone. The rookie from Syracuse is a between-the-tackles grinder who should, at a minimum, be the goal-line back. It’s very possible he supersedes Addai entirely at some point.

Skelley: Breakout year for Josh Freeman.

Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy football knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.

Opening week fantasy pickups

Brandon Lyon ruined my Opening Day. The Houston Astros had a chance to sneak a victory by the stacked Philadelphia Phillies. But Lyon foiled that plan, surrendering three ninth-inning runs in just 1/3 of an inning. If you’re doing the math, that’s an 81.00 ERA.

For the record, I don’t have Lyon on my fantasy team, just my hometown team. Which also hurts. But it’s a long season, and it’s too soon to label anyone a dud. Even Lyon, who will get a lot of chances in the closer role.

Don't panic if your team is full of poor performers. A handful of games is hardly a good measure. But it’s not too soon to test the waiver wire and make some minor adjustments.

In no particular order, here are the candidates: (Please hold your applause until the end.)

Kyle Drabek – The son of Doug Drabek is one of the most hyped pickups, largely because of his near no-no last week. Boasts a 1.29 ERA with seven strikeouts. Available in 39 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Ben Francisco – With a 6-for-13 performance to open the season, the Phillies outfielder looks like a respectable replacement for Jayson Werth. With an abundance of good outfielders, Francisco remains a good option for deep and NL-only leagues. The real question here: Can he grow a crazy goatee like Werth? Available in 78 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Jordan Walden – The new Angels closer pitched a perfect ninth on Tuesday. Walden is scoreless in 3.1 innings with six strikeouts so far this season. Tough to say if this new role will stick with Fernando Rodney vying to win his job back. Available in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Willie Bloomquist – Need stolen bases? Check out the Diamondbacks’ Bloomquist who has four swipes already. His line looks good too: batting .333, one home run and three RBI. Has position versatility, so even when Stephen Drew returns, manager Kirk Gibson could slot him elsewhere. A good deep or NL-only pickup. Available in 84 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Logan Morrison – Probably a little early to claim him, but his two home runs got my attention. Batting .286 with four RBI for the Marlins. Hopefully more than a fluke as he belted only two home runs last season. Keep your eye on him. Available in 66 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Yunel Escobar – Escobar’s power and production dipped last year, but his impressive start (.375 AVG, 1 HR, 3 RBI) gives hope that he’s returned to 2009 form when he hit .299 with 14 dingers and 76 RBI. Available in 40 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Connecticut – Too late to claim UConn, but this seems like the appropriate place to boast that I picked them to win it all. Of course, since I had three brackets, I also had them losing.

Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin 's fantasy advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday 9-10 during football season, and before Texans games.

Q&A with Texans voice Marc Vandermeer

One week before Super Bowl XLV, I sat down with Voice of the Houston Texans and Sports Radio 610 morning host Marc Vandermeer to 1) learn more about the man behind the mike, 2) give me an excuse to write about our fantasy championship and 3) make fun of his hobby. Just wait, it’s a good one.

Erin: As Super Bowl Sunday approaches, are you reminded of another Super Bowl – you know, five weeks ago when we clinched the Sports Radio 610 fantasy championship?

Marc: Well, my involvement in our fantasy run is about the same as my involvement in the Packers and Steelers. None. Note to readers: Erin ran my fantasy team from draft day to championship. I did, on occasion, ask her how things were going and did enjoy basking in the glow of many victories.

Erin: Is that a whimper I hear?

Marc: Yes, I’m emotional.

Erin: Speaking of emotional and erratic, do you remember the day you tried to fire me as your general manager?

Marc: No.

Erin: I do. And you did it on the air. Humiliating.

Marc: I was hoping you forgot.

Erin: Um, no. I used it as motivation and I persevered.

Erin: What is life like for you in the off-season?

Marc: It's like waking up from a long dream or returning from a trip to outer space. The season for me goes in warp speed and I'm completely wrapped up in it. Upon completion, I notice that my son has gotten much bigger and I might benefit from a shave. Other than that, it's full throttle on the morning show on Sports Radio 610.

Erin: What does the Vanderfamily do?

Marc: They want more time with me and usually there is a honey-do list the size of the Manhattan phone book.

Erin: Do you ever use the term "Vanderfamily" when introducing your wife and kid?

Marc: Of course! It's all about branding these days, you know. I attach the 'Vander' prefix to a great many things and feel very protective of it. Someone told me there is a place in New York called VanderBar. I am currently contacting the VanderLawyer to execute a cease and desist.

Erin: Does the Vanderwife roll her eyes?

Marc: She'll put up with it as long as the direct deposits keep coming in and no one cancels the Nordstrom card.

Vanderwife: Yes, I roll my eyes.

Erin: Are you considering resuming your hobby as a competitive boater?

Marc: That would be competitive sailor! Yes, Houston is loaded with great sailors. There are numerous national championships in different boat classes raced here every year.

Erin: I now know which Village People outfit suits you.

Erin: Are you aware that it's possibly the lamest sport to claim as your own?

Marc: Only when I'm reminded of this by people like you and (Sports Radio 610 co-host John) Lopez. Trust me, if most critics get out there in Galveston Bay on a 20-knot day in a Vanguard 15 or a Melges 24, they'd change their minds real fast.

Erin: I don’t know what a Melges is, but I’ll stick to fake football.

Erin: If you had a yacht, what would you name it?

Marc: I was going to name it Erin the Fantasy Girl, but now I'm reconsidering.

Erin: Who's your pick in the Super Bowl?

Marc: I really want this one for Dom Capers but I think the Steelers will win.

Erin: Why don't you like Aaron Rodgers? I've heard your smack talk.

Marc: I think he's a great quarterback. I just think there's such a rush by the media to put him next to Brees, Manning and Brady and he hasn't done enough for that yet. Plus, I'm jealous. Two years ago Matt Schaub beat him head to head. I think if Schaub had the Green Bay defense he would be in the post season too.

Erin: You know, Rodgers is my fantasy quarterback. I think I might love him.

Marc: But that's not unconditional love. Isn't it more like a prolonged fantasy football one-night stand? I've seen you turn your back on your fantasy players and replace them with the next 'flavor of the month.' Don't deny it.

Erin: Any early projections for the Texans 2011 season?

Marc: Wade Philips will certainly make a difference. They should be extremely productive on offense again. I just hope they get enough of an off season and preseason to get that 3-4 defense going. The lockout has me worried.

Erin: You called some tough plays this season…what was the worst?

Marc: Jets – meltdown in less than a minute, Baltimore – Pick 6 in overtime, Jacksonville - Hail Mary, San Diego - Andre's knee, all tie for the top spot. Tebow makes honorable mention.

Erin: I only asked for one.

Erin: What’s the biggest meltdown you’ve ever had on the air?

Marc: The worst I've felt after a loss is my "Stop the Vinsanity" call after Vince Young ran for 39 yards for the winning TD in overtime in 2006. That one stung for a while.

Erin: What are your projections for our 2011 fantasy team?

Marc: I predict more doom and destruction for any team that goes up against a squad managed by you. That's why I have a first right of refusal to renew your contract each year. I can't bear the thought of actually competing against you.

Erin: Actually, you can bear the thought. Remember, you tried to dump me.


Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday 9-10 during football season, and before Texans games.

Week 16 stocking stuffers

The best Christmas gifts can come from people who don’t even know you. For me, those people are Jamaal Charles, Ben Roethlisberger and Andre Johnson (pictured here in Santa gear). I’m counting on big, really big, gifts from them this week. Week 16 marks the Sports Radio 610 Fantasy Super Bowl, and I (or rather Marc Vandermeer and I) go head-to-head with Robert Henslee for the title. I’ll forego candy, candles and other Christmas gift staples for a fantasy championship ring. Hear that, Santa?

You too need a Christmas miracle? Here are a few early gifts for you….

Jon Kitna – Kitna, who is the No. 7 quarterback over the past six weeks, faces the Cardinals on Christmas Day. And while Arizona has nice numbers against QBs, as Yahoo points out, their matchups have been weak so their numbers are misleading. Available in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Tim Tebow – Although I lack a research team to prove this, I’m pretty sure he’s the only quarterback to ever apologize for a 40-yard touchdown run. It was a busted play, and a mistake, but an apology….really? Good grief, I am vomiting. But I’m also recommending the awe-shucks gunner in deep or two-QB leagues. Available in 85 percent of Yahoo leagues. Zero availability in the state of Florida, just like his jersey.

Donald Brown –With injuries to Adrian Peterson and Knowshon Moreno, owners are searching the waiver wire. Brown looked solid last week with 129 yards, but proceed with caution. The Colts assortment of running backs resembles that of the Patriots. Start in the flex slot only. Available in 65 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Lance Ball – Ball’s a good play vs. the Texans if Moreno sits. No word yet on Moreno ’s status for Sunday, but as of Wednesday, he had yet to practice. I’ll avoid calling Ball a “baller” like most fantasy sites. Available in 99 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Chris Ivory – Reggie Bush was pitiful last week. Ivory’s a good No. 3 or flex play. Available in 55 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Andre Caldwell – Boasted 89 yards vs. Cleveland last week. Faces a less friendly Chargers defense this week, however T.O. and Ocho are ailing, so Caldwell will get more looks. Available in 99 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin 's fantasy advice on Sports Radio 610 every week Friday morning 9-10 a.m., or during the Texans pre-game show every week. With the holidays, Erin will appear on Thursday instead of Friday.

Week 15: Special playoff edition

I could use Sal Alosi right about now. Who’s Sal? I’m referring to the New York Jets strength and conditioning coach who is the real life version of Wile E. Coyote. I guess tripping a player is better than using Acme dynamite or triple-strength poison. But it’s also less creative.

Of course, Sal’s slip-and-fall was inappropriate. But if tripping my opponents advances me to the next round, I’m thinking a strategically placed grease spot is a consideration.

Actually, I’m trying to act cool like I’ve been here before (and of course, I have!) but I’m a little giddy, especially with Sunday approaching. I’m also beginning to second-guess my players, my defense and my strategy. But now I’m second-guessing my second-guessing. And there’s an important lesson to be learned from anyone who has tried to upgrade their fantasy management before: Don’t. Really. Don’t over-think, over-react, or over-do. You are either smart or lucky enough - but probably just lucky – to have gotten this far. So stick with the strategy that earned you a playoff berth.

Here are a few pickups to help you down the final stretch. And by the way, congratulations!

Tim Hightower – Carolina is generously donating yards to running backs, so look for Hightower to go crazy with at least 100 yards and a score. Available in 44 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Javarris James – The Colts hate to run, but this guy gets cheap touchdowns. James is expected to shoulder the load on Sunday. He’s a good No. 2 or flex running back. Available in 92 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Kerry Collins – Sorry Texans fans. I know, I know. He’s a Titan, and he faces Houston this week. Don’t like that pick? Check out John Kitna. Ouch, a Cowboy, and not much better. What about David Garrard? Ok, I’ll stop.

Kenny Brit – I can’t stop. I promise the Texans matchup is merely a detail. After recovering from a hamstring injury, Collins’ favorite wideout is back. Moss is just a decoy. Brit is the real thing. Available in 34 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Owen Daniels – Yep, he's recovered. Five catches for 91 yards vs. Baltimore on Monday. Available in 58 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Ryan Torain – With 172 yards against the Bucs, Torain is looking like the Christmas miracle running back, just in time for a playoff run. Available in 42 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Phillies starting rotation – Now that’s a fantasy team.

Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin 's fantasy advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday morning 9-10 a.m., or during the Texans pre-game show every week. This Sunday’s show begins at 9 a.m., with fantasy advice at 9:30.

Week 14: Christmas miracle running back edition

Sunday’s Cowboys-Colts game brought back sweet memories. (Cue the dreamy music.) As Tashard Choice sweated for 100 yards, it reminded me of 2008 when my fantasy playoff hopes were bleak. With very little value on the wire, I claimed Choice, rolling the dice on the Cowboys third-string back. In five weeks, he mustered 552 combined rushing and receiving yards, propelling my little hopeful squad to a Super Bowl berth.

Who is this year’s miracle back? Is Choice the chosen one? Or is it James Starks? What about Anthony Dixon?

Anthony Dixon – While desperate fantasy gamers claimed Brian Westbrook, others overlooked the obvious oldie and claimed the younger, stronger back who now appears to be the lead guy in San Francisco. The Seattle D-line has struggled with injuries lately, so the matchup will be prime for the rookie running back. Down the road, he faces San Diego and St. Louis. Available in 86 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Tashard Choice – As mentioned above, vintage Choice is back. The Philly matchup makes me a little nervous, but you’re not planning to be eliminated this week. Are you? Think Super Bowl, my friend. Dallas faces Washington, then Arizona (giggle). Available in 71 percent of Yahoo leagues.

James Starks – In week 13, Green Bay still didn’t have a solid starter at running back. Enter James Starks, who has a chance to maintain the lead role, despite Coach Mike McCarthy's insistence that they’re all equal. Right. Brandon Jackson had four carries last week. With 73 yards on 20 carries, I not only recommend him, but I claimed him myself. Faces a weak Detroit defense this week. Available in 79 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Chris Ivory – Two touchdowns and 117 yards lands Ivory on this list. The fantasy community has been hesitant to claim him, unsure of Pierre Thomas' return and Reggie Bush’s take-aways. Sean Payton says he doesn’t plan to minimize Ivory's carries, even if Thomas is healthy Sunday. Available in 44 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Random Redskins running backs – Keep your eye on them, and pick carefully. Although the lead back changes week to week, if you pick right, it'll pay. Remember Quinton Ganther last year?

Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin 's fantasy advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday morning 9:00-10 a.m., or during the Texans pre-game show every week. This week is a special Monday Night Football edition. Tune in at 4:30 p.m.

Week 13 pickups

I admit, I enjoyed watching Andre Johnson pummel Cortland Finnegan’s face. Repeatedly. I was at Reliant Stadium for the always contentious Texans-Titans game, and couldn’t find a TV fast enough to see the replay over and over and over. Even as Johnson was escorted off the field, I didn’t consider fantasy implications… until I heard a Texans fan smirk, “Well, there goes Philly.” I quickly deduced that a suspension, perhaps a several-game suspension, could also foil my fantasy team’s playoff plans.

As we now know, all is good for Johnson. After a $25K slap on the wrist, the Texans and fantasy owners everywhere can breathe a collective sigh of relieve. My message to Cortland: Please quit jacking with my pretend team.

As you finalize your rosters, here are a few guys to consider:

Brian Westbrook – An obvious pickup, and an obvious start, Westbrook proved he still has a little bit left in the tank. If your bench allows, grab Anthony Dixon too, especially as the playoffs approach. Westbrook may only have enough fuel for two or three games. Available in 30 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Jacoby Ford – His stats were impressive enough: 108 yards and a touchdown. But if you haven’t seen it, check out the highlight of Ford interrupting an interception for the catch. Amazing. Available in 76 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Ben Obomanu – With Mike Williams sidelined, Obomanu filled his shoes nicely with 159 yards on five catches. As of Wednesday, Williams still hadn’t practiced. Keep your eye on this. Even if he returns, Obomanu is at least worth a look in deeper leagues. And if he sits, start Obomanu. Available in 86 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Toby Gerhart – Although we don’t know Adrian Peterson's fate yet, Gerhart is worth the gamble as the Vikings face the Bills, one of the worst run defenses in the league. Available in 64 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Christopher Ivory – Despite the injury tag, Ivory’s a solid start this week with injuries to Pierre Thomas and Ladell Betts. Ivory will split carries with Reggie Bush, but look for Ivory to shoulder the load. Available in 74 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Mike Goodson – What? Goodson is available in half the leagues? The Carolina running back has compiled 400 yards in the last three games. I'm not worried about Jonathan Stewart's return. If he’s still on the wire, grab him.

Any QB but Rusty Smith – In Tennessee , it’s likely Kerry Collins this week. While a calf injury has plagued the Titans quarterback since November 14, there are no other choices for Jeff Fisher on Sunday. Although mediocre, Collins is the best mediocre option for the Titans. Why start him? He faces the Jags. And you don’t need me to tell you this: Start all QBs vs. Jacksonville. Except Rusty.

Have a question for Erin Skelley? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin 's fantasy advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday morning at 9:00, or during the Texans pre-game show every Sunday at 9:30 (expect this week due to the Thursday night game).