Fantasy Preview: Surveying the Experts

The offseason can be lonely. Especially when your team misses the playoffs. Again. Add to that the uncertainly of the 2011 season, and nothing but women’s soccer to comfort you. I too was sad and anxious, but it’s time to pull yourself together. Fantasy football is back.

But there’s one problem. Offseason studying was uninspiring. And now you’re paying the price. Like a linebacker entering training camp with 20 extra pounds. Fortunately, I made a few phone calls to an assortment of fantasy experts and sports biz friends to help. Why I’m rarely wrong (a fat lie), why not get a little help from my friends.

This esteemed group of gurus includes Brad Evans, Yahoo! Sports writer/personality, Chris Liss, managing editor of Rotowire.com, Ray Flowers, host of The Fantasy Drive –XM 87, Sirius 210, Jason Friedman, Rockets.com beat writer and obsessed fantasy guy, and J.J. Moses, retired Houston Texans player.

Who do you like at No. 1? Adrian or Arian?

Liss: Adrian Peterson. Because he does it every year and I think the team will lean on him even more heavily this season.

Moses: Arian Foster. Oh by the way, did I forget to say, he’s the NFL’s leading rusher?

Skelley: I hate picking first. I feel doomed. There are lots of stars, but the No. 1 guy has to be special. He is someone who demonstrates consistency and has special powers to thwart injuries. Both Peterson and Foster could fit that bill. But Peterson has done it longer. It’s a safer pick.

Evans: Arian. Vonta Leach’s departure to Baltimore smarts a little, but with a superb line, great passing offense, defined “bell cow” role and versatile skill set, Foster is the indisputable No. 1 pick. Peterson is still a top-five back, but question marks surrounding McNabb, especially minus Sidney Rice, and the offensive line are hard to ignore.

Friedman: Is "no one" a legitimate answer? Seriously, somebody please show me a player who so clearly separates himself from the pack that he should be deemed worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. Michael Vick clearly possesses the potential to be that guy, but do you really feel comfortable taking a quarterback who's a significant injury risk at that spot, knowing you won't be able to address any of the other positions until after approximately 20 other players have been removed from the board? Keep in mind that question comes courtesy of someone who was fortunate enough to thoroughly enjoy the Michael Vick experience from a fantasy perspective last year. Not sure I'd have the intestinal fortitude necessary to take him with the top pick, though. More likely I'd play it safe and (reluctantly) grab Adrian Peterson. All of which is my typically long-winded way of saying I'd walk away with an exceedingly uneasy feeling no matter whom I selected No. 1 overall this year.

Flowers: You can make an argument for multiple players to be first off the board in fantasy football. Michael Vick passed like he was Ben Roethlisberger and ran like he was Ryan Mathews last season. Jamaal Charles had a historic 6.4 yards per carry mark and owns a 6.0 mark for his career. Chris Johnson is one year removed from going for over two grand, and last year ran for 1,364 yards and 11 scores while catching 44 passes. Adrian Peterson is coming off his least productive rushing season though he still ran for 1,298 yards and scored 12 times on the ground. Despite all of those accolades, the No. 1 player off the board this season in fantasy football drafts should be Arian Foster. The Texans' runner led the NFL with 1,616 yards rushing and 16 rushing scores. He was also second at the position with 66 receptions while his total of 604 yards receiving paced all backs (he also scored twice through the air). Foster also racked up eight 100-yard rushing games and had seven games in which he did at least two end zone boogies. It's Foster or bust in 2011.

Who are the big free agency winners?

Liss: Chad Ochocinco. Playing with a top-five, all-time quarterback (Tom Brady) on a team without a No. 1 wide receiver is a huge upgrade. I've moved him up to No. 22 on the WR board.

Skelley: Larry Fitzgerald should reap the rewards with Kevin Kolb now feeding him. If you picked Fitzgerald in the first round last year, you probably defended it, but you really weren’t happy with six wimpy scores. Expect vintage Fitz this year: 1,200 yards, 10-plus touchdowns.

Evans: Completely agree on Ocho and Fitz. Both should rebound nicely. But Mike-Sims Walker is also a big winner. If he exudes the work ethic and stamina he once did with the Jags two years ago, he’s capable of emerging a top-flight WR2/3 within Josh McDaniels’ pass-happy offense. Sam Bradford is dreamy.

Flowers: Mike Sims-Walker goes to the Rams, and while that doesn't sound like much, it's something. The Rams have a gaggle of wide receivers who are injury prone, inexperienced and/or small, so MSW certainly has a chance to make some waves. A year removed from a 63-catch, 869-yard effort, MSW has scored 14 times the past two years, three more times than Wes Welker and only one fewer than DeSean Jackson. MSW isn't going to be an All-Pro, but working with an ever improving Sam Bradford he could best the numbers that he posted in 2009.

Friedman: Texans fans aren't going to like hearing this, but surely the Ravens' Ray Rice did a happy dance the second he heard Vonta Leach will now be bulldozing paths for Rice to run through this season. I also have to believe the Eagles defense will be highly rated after the embarrassment of riches their free agent haul provided, but NO defense should be selected before the latter rounds, so take that with a pretty significant serving of salt.

Moses: Darren Sproles being traded to the Saints will have an impact in helping with the void that Reggie Bush will leave. I have to support family, a Waterloo native, and guys who are 5'6.

Anyone you’re avoiding in the draft?

Friedman: I wouldn't say I'm "avoiding" anyone per se; to me it's simply all about value. Would I feel good about taking an overworked, increasingly-injured Steven Jackson in the top-15? Not really. But should he somehow slip another 10 spots, he'd suddenly start to look like a pick that would make you feel pretty darn good about yourself.

Skelley: My no-Steven Jackson policy remains in effect. Also, despite an incredible 2010 campaign, Peyton Hillis won’t repeat.

Liss: Whoever Brad Evans likes.

Evans: For the record, while Liss was contemplating life “lifting” his Shake Weight last August, yours truly was singing the praises of Arian Foster and Right Coast Mike Williams. Sometimes a blind squirrel does indeed find a nut. Also, Maurice Jones-Drew has the plague as far as I’m concerned. Coming off knee surgery and with Rashad Jennings expected to shoulder an increased load, the Oompah-Loompah is not the elite RB1 people are drafting him as.

Who are your sleeper picks?

Flowers: Mike Tolbert is being drafted about five rounds later than Ryan Mathews despite the fact that Tolbert scored four more touchdowns and ran for 57 more yards than the younger Mathews last season. With Mathews coming off an injury-filled campaign (plus the fact that he is already dealing with injuries in camp), and the fact that Darren Sproles is no longer with the club to take away looks on third down means that Tolbert could once again be a vital part of the Chargers offense.

Friedman: Most, if not all, of these probably qualify more as the deep sleeper variety: QB: Tim Tebow, RB: Ben Tate, WR: Emmanuel Sanders, TE: Jared Cook.

Liss: I like Earl Bennett to catch 80-plus balls as Jay Cutler's go-to guy. I also like Percy Harvin (should have a bigger role this year).

Evans: In PPR formats, Danny Amendola is pure gold. He could be the NFC’s answer to Wes Welker. Standard formats, how about Delone Carter? Joe Addai is the proven vet, yes, but he’s very injury prone. The rookie from Syracuse is a between-the-tackles grinder who should, at a minimum, be the goal-line back. It’s very possible he supersedes Addai entirely at some point.

Skelley: Breakout year for Josh Freeman.

Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every football season with riveting fantasy football knowledge. Follow her on Twitter.