The unthinkable can happen. T.J. Yates showed us on Sunday. With a playoff bid on the line, the rookie showed grit. Trailing 19-13 to the Cincinnati Bengals, Yates capped a 2-minute, 80-yard drive, finding Kevin Walter in the end zone in the final seconds for a Houston Texans win. Rookies don’t do that. But the unthinkable happened.
Rewind 24 hours when fantasy owners were frantically setting their playoff lineups. Anyone who asked me, “Yates or this guy” got an answer you can probably guess. The reason is simple. I use stats and trends to drive my decisions. Not gut feelings. And certainly not team loyalties. I think Yates has potential, and I’ve heard a dozen national analysts rave about his pocket awareness and intangibles. But I don’t take wild chances on the unknown. He had seven quarters of NFL experience prior to Sunday. Seven quarters. But the unthinkable happened.
And it happened elsewhere. Who predicted DeMarco Murray or Greg Jennings would become early casualties Sunday? Or that Ahmad Bradshaw would break team rules and sit half the game? And how about Jake Locker’s nearly heroic effort? Or Rex Grossman’s 252 yards and two TDs? I mean, wow! OK, I did predict that one. Pretty good, huh?
Even with the best stats and predictor models, the unthinkable happens. It’s sports. And the unpredictability is its charm, right? But I’ll still rely on my nerdy numbers and research. And I won’t always be right. But if you think the advice stinks, do what feels right to you. It’s your team.
Congratulations and good luck to those still alive in the playoffs.
Here are this week’s wire picks:
Rex Grossman – Here’s a pick worth repeating. Grossman came through on Sunday with 252 yards and two scores. Yeah, he faced the Patriots, the worst pass defense in the league. Well guess what. This week he faces the Giants, the second worst in the league. Rexy’s worth another start. Still available in 87 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Felix Jones – The most obvious pick of them all, meet Felix Jones, who ran for 106 yards after replacing the injured DeMarco Murray. Jones is not only a must-grab, but a must-start, as he faces the run-friendly Tampa defense, which yields the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Available in 36 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Cincinnati defense – Matchups matter. Cincy faces the woeful Rams, who make any defense look good. The Bengals are decent, and that’s good enough to take advantage of St. Louis. Available in 42 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Ryan Grant – With James Starks nursing an injured ankle, Grant dazzled with 85 yards and two touchdowns. Starks remains a question mark this Sunday, but if the Packers choose to rest him, Grant will enjoy the yummy KC defense (sixth worst in the league against fantasy RBs). Check the injury report before game time. Available in 54 percent of Yahoo leagues.
T.J. Yates – As I said above, let the stats tell the story. And while his stats (558 yards, three TDs in 2+ games) only provide a small sample size, Carolina’s stats tell the full story. The Panthers give up the 10th most points to opposing quarterbacks. If you need to reach, the rookie QB is a decent start. Especially if Andre Johnson returns. Available in 94 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Erin Skelley joins Sports Radio 610 every Friday and Sunday morning. Follow her on Twitter.
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