Don't ignore the signs

There are always warning signs. Look at Brad Lidge. You probably could have predicted his meltdown, right?

Geovany Soto looked like a rising star in 2008, but what a crummy 2009. Perhaps it was the trip to the World Baseball Classic. Such a curse. It’s like a pre-season home run derby.

But what about players who sustain injuries? Those are just bad, back luck. So unlucky. So we’ll blame Dice K’s unlucky stats on his unlucky injuries. Hmm, he was in the Classic too.

It may sound like excuses, but it’s more than that. It’s fantasy intuition. And we choose to see it or ignore it. It’s well documented. Look it up. Unfortunately, it’s often disregarded. After a player completely fails you, you look back at the warning signs, similar to that of a jaded relationship. In fact, I think one of Oprah’s book club conversations featured “seeing the signs.” And she doesn’t even play fantasy.

Some show up a little rounder and softer at spring training. Others sign big contracts and relax. Some are simply named Milton Bradley. Trust these things. And run.

Below is a short list of players who are question marks heading into 2010. Some are great values, and some great risks. I’ve assessed this group using my trusty part-stat/part-gut formula. And it’s a very complicated formula, not to mention patent pending.


Intuition says yes

Cole Hammels – Was 2009 a blip or a warning sign? His stats were terrible (for him), posting a 4.32 ERA, yielding a .274 batting average, and notching only 10 wins. Ross Ohlendorf had 11 wins with the Pirates. The Pirates! All reports indicate that Hammels will turn it around this year. He’s fully rested, which some blame for last year’s subpar performance. Fantasy owners could be nervous about burning a high draft pick on this question mark. Don’t be nervous. Take a look - he could be a real value.

Carlos Quentin –Without the injuries, Quentin’s 2009 campaign is likely very different. He is reportedly healthy at Spring Training. While I don’t expect 2008 numbers, I think he’s worth taking a chance and filling your third outfield spot.

Felipe Paulino – A lot of buzz at Astros camp surrounding this hurler. He has the goods, it’s just a matter of control and avoiding big innings. Fortunately for Paulino, who else do the Astros have? Still thinking? With a little less pressure on him, he should be able to settle down and earn 12 wins, and muster a middle-of-the road ERA, but should also get 100+ strikeouts. His WHIP could hurt you, but I’d settle for that if I’m getting strikeouts. Take him late.

Asdrubal Cabrera – He had a good season, so what’s he doing on this list? Not exactly a sleeper…at least not in the conventional sense. He should outperform his draft order, so he’s a sleeper to me. Boasting a .308 average, with 68 RBI and 17 SB, Cabrera is still underrated. He’s a top 8-10 short stop. And there’s a bonus – he’s still eligible at second base for at least one more year.

Juan Pierre – Pierre actually answered some questions for us last year when he filled in for the suspended Manny Ramirez. Still, he went back to the bench when he returned. Finally earning a starting spot with the White Sox, Pierre has a chance to burn the base paths all season. If he plays a full season, he’s likely to hit .300, steal 50 bases and score 100 runs.

Intuition says no

Raul Ibanez – When a player blossoms this late in his career, it’s hard to imagine a repeat performance. Add to that injuries. I think Ibanez will have a decent year, but expect a decline, so don’t overdraft him. He’s your No.2 or No. 3 outfielder, a demotion from last year.

Francisco Liriano – Too many issues here. His ERA inflated, his fastball failed him and his injuries benched him.

Brandon Webb – If the Diamondbacks declined his option, you should too. Too much risk here.

Ivan Rodriquez – You weren’t going to draft him, were you?

So...

The big question now is: does your intuition trust mine?

Have a question for Erin? E-mail her at erskelley@yahoo.com. Also, tune in to Erin's fantasy football advice on Sports Radio 610 every Friday morning during the football season.