Monday, September 7, 2009

Fantasy football preview: sleepers

You often hear about lottery winners losing it all. $5 million, $10 million, $25 million – all gone. Some even go bankrupt. It begs the question – how could someone with so much lose it all?

Just ask Josh McDaniel. As one of the NFL’s youngest head coaches, he inherited the No. 2 offense in the league this season when he joined the Denver Broncos. And like careless windfall winners, he has negotiated, coached and manipulated the Denver offense into personnel bankruptcy – and all before the first regular-season snap. Starting with the silly feud with Jay Cutler, resulting in a trade for Kyle Orton (which suggests he should have tried for Matt Cassell), and now his lead receiver Brandon Marshall has been suspended for poor conduct after treating practice like a playground.

SR 610’s Matt Jackson fantasy team name is one of my favorites: Forgetting Brandon Marshall. As a fantasy owner, perhaps “forget” is a little strong, but his fantasy stock has certainly dropped. Remembering Eddie Royal, however, would be a good thing.

Royal’s fantasy value certainly increases, even with a lesser-ranked Orton at QB. And while the Broncos maintain they will keep Marshall, immature practice antics such as swatting passes and punting balls (instead of handing them to the ball boys) hardly prove his point that he deserves more respect.

In his freshman year, Royal caught an impressive 91 passes, and boasted the second highest percentage for receptions – 72.2 percent, just behind steady Wes Welker. Do I have a lot of confidence in the Denver Broncos? No. Do I have a lot of confidence in Eddie Royal’s fantasy value? Yes.

Sleepers

My other sleepers aren’t necessarily super sleepers, but I think they’ll do better than their draft order suggests. If your draft was already conducted, no worries. Just keep your finger on the keyboard.

QB – In addition to Matt Hasselbeck (mentioned in a previous blog), I like Matt Cassell as a late-round pick. Even if he’s out a few weeks, he would make a great backup or safety net should your starting QB turn out to be a bust.

RB – Peyton Hillis could be the dark horse of the running backs. With Denver’s running game pandemic, Hillis could be the go-to guy eventually. Even as the backup, he’ll see plenty of playing time serving a utility function.

Jamaal Charles could also land himself the starting role for the Kansas City Chiefs. Hard to imagine Larry Johnson making it through the entire season, and if he does, it will be because Charles has received considerable playing time. As one of the fastest guys in the NFL, an achy Johnson gives Charles the opportunity to take over the starter role.

WR - The lightening fast Percy Harvin could make a big fantasy impact this season. The Vikings plan to play him in a number of roles which gives him more scoring opportunities. I also like the Colts’ Anthony Gonzalez. With Harrison gone, his looks increase. With Manning as QB, he could double his TDs from four to eight.

TE – Greg Olson is the biggest receiving threat on the Bears. Consider him a wide receiver in the TE slot. The addition of Cutler makes him more dangerous.

DEF - The New York Jets are a good late-round pickup. Rex Ryan brought half his crew from the Baltimore Ravens. They are likely to blitz often and rack up major fantasy points. Having Leon Washington return kicks is a bonus.

K – Aren’t they all? Pick one.

No comments:

Post a Comment