Fantasy football preview: running backs

This time last year as I plotted my draft strategy, I scribbled various running backs for consideration in the later rounds. Picking the sleepers is always my favorite part of draft preparation. There were third-down backs and third-stringers. They were unknown and unproven. I would have been satisfied if one had worked out.

How about three?

Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Darren McFadden. All drafted after round eight. McFadden turned out to be a bust because of injuries. But I also nabbed Michael Turner in round three. And did I mention LaDainian Tomlinson? Had him too. Nice set of backs for one team.

Think I can repeat that same draft kharma? Not a chance.

2008 was a special year. We saw a flurry of quality backs: DeAngelo Williams and Matt Forte, in addition to Slaton, Johnson and Turner. We also witnessed the reemergence of Thomas Jones, and Ronnie Brown's career year.


Rookie class

This year's rookie class doesn't compare to 2008. Still, take notice at a few of the prospects you can draft in the later rounds:

Donald Brown - Expected to split carries with Joseph Addai. While the veteran is expected to start the season with the majority of the carries, Brown should quickly earn a decent share of the load. The former Husky is highly regarded as a talented, smart player who gives the Colts a lot of tools in the backfield.

Knowshon Moreno – The first running back taken in the 2009 draft is expected to be the biggest impact rookie. The former Georgia back ranks sixth in rushing yards (2,734) and touchdowns (30), despite spending only two seasons with the Bulldogs. He does it all. Very athletic, good hands. Denver will have high expectations from the beginning, and he should see considerable playing time from day one. Hopefully, Moreno can avoid the Broncos injury epidemic that plagued six starting running backs last season.

LeSean McCoy – The Eagles plan to give the second-rounder decent playing time, although Brian Westbrook remains the go-to guy. McCoy just turned 21 in July compared to Westbrook, who turns 30 in September, and is also recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason. The former Panther gives the Eagles the same talent as Westbrook, minus all the miles on his knees. The Eagles must reduce Westbrook’s workload if they want his knees to last into January. The only concern is McCoy's ability to block, which would limit his playing time if that becomes a liability.


My fab five

Two variables provide considerable turmoil for fantasy owners – injuries and platoons. That quickly disqualifies DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson (both running backs by committee) and Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook (both injury prone). No denying their talent, but I don’t like the risks. My fab five includes the top talent, but also the players who have the most opportunities and the fewest red flags.

Adrian Peterson – All Day. Of course. The best back in the game. Plus, the Vikings use a true featured back system, which is important to fantasy owners.

Michael Turner – Free agency was good to him after serving as LT’s backup for four years. Expected to provide solid fantasy numbers again. Only concern is the 2009 schedule is considerably stronger. His best games in 2008 were against weak opponents. Needs to prove he can hold his own against a talented line.

Matt Forte – The addition of Jay Cutler gives the Bears more options - and distractions - making Forte a more effective and improved back this year. Look for a strong sophomore performance out of Forte.

Maurice Jones-Drew – His ranking improves over last year as the Jaguars have dropped Fred Taylor. Even splitting caries in 2008, he posted impressive numbers, which is why his stock has soared with a lone-back system now in place. By the way, MJD will tell you to draft him No. 1. Really. He loves fantasy football and making his owners proud.

Steve Slaton – The sophomore back surprised even the Houston Texans who put him third in line last season. Great choice if your league gives points for receptions. An all-around improved Texans squad gives Slaton more support and more opportunities to score.


The Knuckle Ball: a pitch for life

Thanks to everyone who joined the Houston Astros and the Joe Niekro Foundation at last week's Knuckle Ball gala, in memory of former Houston Astros pitcher Joe Niekro. Over $400,000 was raised for brain aneurysm research for the Methodist Neurological Institute, here in Houston. Many of Joe's former teammates and friends joined us, including Ozzie Smith shown here with me. It was a really special night, especially for sports fans, and especially for me. I hope to see you next year - it's for a really good cause. If you have questions about sponsorship or tickets, please call me at 832-667-5804 or e-mail me at erskelley@yahoo.com.


Have a question? E-mail Erin at erskelley@yahoo.com.