Fantasy Football: Should I Take Back Chris Johnson?

Dear Chris Johnson:

Hello again, it’s me. We haven’t spoken or written since I broke up with you last November. How are you? Did you have a good Christmas? How’s the weather?

I want to explain why I ended things the way I did, although you probably already know. I had big – make that HUGE – expectations for us. You were my first round fantasy pick, despite my conflicting team loyalties in Houston. I admit (secretly between us) that headed into last season, I had a good feeling about you. I’m sure nabbing you as a rookie in 2008 helped foster that bond. You were just a pup but I took a chance in the late rounds, and it proved to be spectacular, as you rushed for over 1,200 yards with 10 touchdowns. I thought we had something special.

Despite your even bigger showing in 2009, over time and especially last season, your production diminished. At first, I defended you, and then I defended you again. And then I benched you, and ultimately dumped you. Some blame the O-line. Some say you were never in “football shape.” And some claim it was the play calling. It doesn’t really matter anymore, does it? Time has passed, which has me contemplating do I try to move on, or do I beg you back? Sigh…

Let’s look at your pre-season production: Attended voluntary workouts (Excellent, kudos!), added 10 pounds (Not excellent. Doesn’t that make you… um, less fast?), then rushed for 81 yards on 28 carries in three pre-season games (downright atrocious). Perhaps it is best if I move on, or at least just choose you in a later round (like third, for instance) to avoid disappointment. At my RB1 slot, I’m thinking Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, Marshawn Lynch or DeMarco Murray might be a better fit for me. And me for them, of course. They certainly carry less risk, and offer consistency. I love consistency!

Chris, now that we’ve settled that, are you friends with Michael Vick or Peyton Hillis? I’d like to consider both of them but they also struggled a bit last season. To draft or not to draft… here’s my thinking:

Vick disappointed many owners last year, especially those who claimed him in the first round. He threw for 3,306 yards, and 18 touchdowns (with 14 interceptions), and he also missed five games. But come on, you knew the risk. Just watch how he plays. His gutsy, gritty running back style, which can turn a busted play into a first down, can also surrender his body to unnecessary bodily harm. As I type this, Vick is recovering from bruised ribs, of course. The Philly quarterback has taken only 12 snaps this pre-season, only 12 more than me! Vick has practiced for two consecutive days, so he’s on the mend. For now. This is Vick, so he’s either hurt, about to get hurt, or recovering from getting hurt.

So what does all this mean? While he has first-round talent, he’s just too risky for the very early rounds. But you can’t avoid all risk, and you need some risk – smart risk – to gain an advantage. Yes, he’s draftable, but take him in rounds 4-5, and grab yourself a top reserve like Jay Cutler. Also keep an eye on Philly’s backup Nick Foles. He has impressed the Eagles so far.

Now, let’s talk about Hillis. This guy should consider himself lucky. If Johnson had not toyed with fantasy owners’ emotions last season, Hillis would have subjected himself to even more Twitter abuse. The Madden cover boy missed five games with a pulled hammy and then one game with a sore throat (Sucrets, dude). His aloof demeanor only made it worse. At season’s end, he mustered a measly 587 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

This season, he’s expected to split the carries with Jamaal Charles in the Kansas City Chiefs’ backfield. He’s the bigger back, expected to plow through defenders on the goal line. Hillis had looked better than Charles this pre-season, but now marred by the stats of his last game: 2 carries for -1 yards. Dismal, but probably not a factor. Bottom line, he’ll play and score. Decent RB2. Really good RB3. Look in rounds 5-6 for this back (and rounds 2-3 for Charles). And Peyton, rest those tonsils.

Erin Skelley joins Houston Texans Radio every week on SportsRadio 610. Follow her on Twitter @erinskelley. She’ll babble fantasy to anyone who will listen. 

Fantasy Draft Day Discipline

Fantasy owners of America, you need discipline. The worst, most pathetic drafters are the ones with no game plan, no self-control – no discipline. Assuming you don’t have the courage or know-how to create and follow your own set of guidelines, I am sharing with you my “never” list. Clip and save this little essay, as you need some boundaries.

I will never draft Steven Jackson. Yeah, I know. He’s a workhorse. All he does is run, and run some more. And his braids are really awesome, but his body is going to fall apart. Let it be on someone else’s team. DeMarco Murray and Hakeem Nicks are currently being taken just after him. Much smarter, safer picks.

I will never doubt Wade Phillips. Sure, the Texans lost Mario Williams, but he missed 11 games last season, and the Texans still finished third in pass defense, sixth in pass defense and forth in TDs allowed. Studs Conor Barwin, J.J. Watt and Jonathan Joseph will anchor this team to be a top 5 play.

I will never draft a running back in the first round just because all my opponents did so. Remember what your mom said, “If your friends jumped off a bridge, would you?” Mom was right. Don’t follow peer pressure. Can you imagine a real GM doing that on draft day? “Oh no! All the backs are taken. Draft one fast!” said no GM ever. Draft best (and safest) player available in first round.

I will never draft a running back first because a magazine 10 years ago told me the only way to win was drafting RB-RB-WR. The notion that you MUST draft a running back first to win is archaic and wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong.  A commitment to any position in any round is a mistake. Instead take the best of what’s left, not the next RB in line.

I will never draft a kicker in any round other than last. Consider these guys the cherry on top, the garnish, the sprinkles. But don’t tell Sebastian Janikowski he’s sprinkles. Have you seen him?

I will never take a wild chance in the first round. I get it – high risk, high reward. But in the first round, it’s just dumb. Why take a chance on an angry Maurice Jones-Drew? Or Larry Fitzgerald, who’ll have a B-team QB targeting him. Or Chris Johnson whose shown he’s wildly inconsistent.

I will never use the phrase “Bring it,” an expression which should strictly be reserved for reality TV stars in their confessional interviews. If you are sophisticated enough to be confused or disinterested in what I mean, I envy your classy taste.

I will never (this year) draft any Jets players. I’m not sure which is worse: their quarterbacks who are challenged with accuracy, or their receivers who have a chronic case of the dropsies. And let’s not forget their run game, which is stuck in the mud. Avoid all Jets on offense. You will thank me.

I will never (again) underestimate a rookie quarterback. My apologies to Cam Newton, although you lacked a little polish in last year’s pre-season, right? But wow, look at Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck. They have quickly propelled themselves into the top 12 in quarterbacks. And they deserve it. Draft and enjoy. Digging Pierre Garcon too as a favorite target for Griffin. Target in the seventh round.

I will never doubt Peyton Manning. I know his pre-season has been less than stellar. And he’ll be forced to play outdoors for all but one game this season. But he’s Peyton Manning! Even a windblown Manning at 90 percent is worth a sixth round pick.

I will never swim with sharks. As tempting as it looks.

I will never assume lower production from a running back, just because of position competition. Take Jamaal Charles, for instance, who has never solely owned the role. Several fantasy pundits are nervous about the signing of Peyton Hillis. Consider Hillis the new Larry Johnson. Jamaal will be just fine. Take in the third round. Same goes for Matt Forte. Still a top running back, even with the addition of Michael Bush.  Good second round pick.

I will never overlook the importance of the late rounds. Too much emphasis is placed on your first round pick. The league is often won by late-round gems or waiver wire finds. Check out late picks: Jonathan Dwyer, Rashad Jennings, Isaiah Pead, and David Wilson

I will never trust an injury report straight from the mouth of a player. They always say they’re progressing at an amazing pace. Simply amazing. Simply not true.

Erin Skelley joins Texans Radio every week on SportsRadio 610. Follow her on Twitter @erinskelley. She’ll babble fantasy to anyone who will listen.

 

Fantasy Football Sleepers 2012

Good news! I've been claimed off waivers! Yep, the Houston Texans claimed me. And after hard-fought negotiations, this season my articles will be on HoustonTexans.com. 

I'll still post here from time to time, but for the really good stuff,  you'll have to go to my new home, HoustonTexans.com, where I'll post weekly fantasy goodness.

Tomorrow, and every game, you can hear my riveting fantasy advice on SportsRadio 610 during the pre-game show. Please join us!

_____________________

Pre-Season Outlook

Oh, fantasy football, how much I’ve missed you! It’s been seven long months for me, even longer for those who missed the playoffs. I have pined, I have yearned and I have given many helpless looks at my empty stat tracker. And now you’re finally here. My sweet precious!

This year is especially sweet as I join the HoustonTexans.com lineup. For the last five years, I served as Erin the Fantasy Girl on SportsRadio 610 as a weekly guest of the morning show and blogger. Three seasons ago, I joined the Texans pre-game radio show, giving last-minute, sit-start-add-drop-laugh-cry advice. I also held the dubious honor of managing Marc Vandermeer’s fantasy team. Countless men are shaking their heads right now, Marc. But wait, before you judge, please note we fared quite well. Three Super Bowl appearances. One championship ring. And one season I want to forget. I blame Chris Johnson.

What can you expect this year? Pure fantasy goodness. I’ll help you prepare for your draft, prime you for Opening Day, and find those hidden gems throughout the season. And if you can’t get enough here, catch me on Houston Texans Radio on SportsRadio 610, both pre-game and during the week. For those who need a little tutoring or prefer the 140-character version, follow me – and send me questions relentlessly – on Twitter @erinskelley.

The Sleepers

As your Texans march into Training Camp, you have your own pre-season preparation to fulfill as a fake general manager. It’s a big job. But relax, I’ve done a little homework for you already.

Anyone can follow a draft cheat sheet. That’s what most GMs do. Sure, that’s a fair start. But the key is locating the secrets, the scratch-and-dents, the steals. That’s how you gain your edge, both in drafting and the day-to-day management. Good news, my friends. I have these secrets. Take a listen as I whisper a few of my favorite sleepers.

Eric Decker – Tim Tebow ruined his 2011 season. In his first five games, Decker caught 22 passes for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns. Post-Kyle Orton, the he caught 22 the rest of the season. The rest of the season! Denver’s extreme quarterback makeover resulted in the one-and-only Peyton Manning who should give the wideout yummy stats. Projecting 900 yards and 7 TDs. Solid sixth round pick.

Isaac Redman – Redman is the favorite fill-in for Rashard Mendenhall, who will start the season on the bench, potentially on the PUP list for six games. This provides prime opportunity for Redman, who has a lot of pieces falling into place. Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley is looking to reinvigorate the sad Steelers offense, which ranked 21^st in the league last year. Pittsburgh is expected to run more, which is why the team invested high draft picks on its O-line. Redman should impress – as he did late last season with 127 yards and two TDs vs. Denver in the playoffs – and maintain at least 10-15 touches when Mendenhall returns. Best case scenario, Redman remains the starter. Currently drafting in the seventh round. Smart pick at seven.

Stevan Ridley – I was hesitant to include Ridley. After all, aren’t all Patriots running backs sleepers? Belichick loves to keep opposing teams – and fantasy owners – guessing. However, Ridley is the early favorite, practicing with the first team. The sophomore from LSU is a good goal-line back to help finish off Tom Brady’s hard work. Ridley would be a nice option to target as your No. 3 or flex as he has the potential to become a very strong No. 2.  Draft with confidence in round 9. Let me rephrase that. Draft with confidence, with the understanding Belichick could change his mind.

Brandon LaFell – The Panthers wideout is expected to win the No.2 position. LaFell reported to camp in good shape and has better grasp of the playbook this year. With Steve Smith’s 2011 renaissance season, LaFell took the table scraps. Cam Newton should spread the looks this year, giving him a good chance at 800 yards, 5 TDs. Good value in the seventh round.

Torrey Smith – Seven touchdowns isn’t bad. Keep in mind, he didn’t play until week three. Smith showed the ability to burn receivers as a dangerous downfield threat. His biggest challenges were Joe Flacco’s ability to get him the ball and his rookie route sense. Plus, Smith played without the polish of most top receivers. But he’s a sophomore now, and experience should go a long way for this budding star. Expect Smith to surpass Anquan Boldin this year as the top Baltimore target, and reach the 900 yard-mark. Currently drafting in the sixth round. Bargain.

Emmanuel Sanders – With Mike Wallace contract talks going sour and the retirement of Hines Ward, Sanders is a solid No. 2 WR in Pittsburgh, perhaps even competing with Antonio Brown for the No. 1 slot. His injury history concerns me, but not enough to overlook him in the ninth round.  

Jake Locker – Call this a super sleeper, as Matt Hasselbeck appears locked in as the starter in Tennessee. But an aging Hasselbeck gives Locker a good chance to take over. And although brief, Locker showed poise, agility and accuracy last year when forced to play (542 yards, 1 TD). He’ll be fantasy relevant; perhaps sooner than expected. Dynasty leagues take note; he’s worth a late-round grab. All others, watch with your hand on the keyboard.

Any New York Jets running back not named Shonn Greene – Another season of average Shonn Greene production. Joe McKnight and Bilal Powell are next in line.

Other notables: Randall Cobb, Denarius Moore, Jacquizz Rodgers, Isaiah Pead, Doug Baldwin, Vincent Brown, Ryan Williams.

Erin Skelley joins Houston Texans Radio every week on SportsRadio 610. Follow her on Twitter @erinskelley. She’ll babble fantasy to anyone who will listen.